UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for February 10th with Jack Hermansson and Joe Pyfer headlining the event in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Daniel Marcos -230 v Aori Qiling +190
Daniel Marcos isn't a high volume fighter, but his strikes have good power to them and they're accurate. He didn't have too many strikes landed in his win against Davey Grant, but Grant was bloodied up and damaged as Marcos got the win in his last fight.
I think this fight should look similar as Aori isn't a great fighter and his best days are behind him. He's low volume as well, and doesn't move that great, and he struggled against Johnny Munoz in his last fight which is a bad sign.
He doesn't have great ground game so I expect this to be a fight mostly on the feet where Marcos will land the better strikes.
I do worry about Marcos being undefeated as he won't go his whole career undefeated, and a loss is certainly coming, I just don't thing Aori is going to be the one to take his 0.
Zac Pauga -135 v Bogdon Guskov +114
One of my most confident wagers I've ever met was for Oezdemir to beat Guskov in his debut, and it was an easy cash as Guskov did not look like a UFC caliber fighter, especially in the takedown and ground defense.
Guskov is 14-3, but his matches have been in shady Russian leagues with little footage to see, and opponents that are pretty bad and he was exposed in his UFC debut.
I'm not high on Zac Pauga, and this is an opponent that Guskov's style matches as both are strikers, but I can't bet on Guskov in a UFC fight.
Pauga is 1-2 in the UFC, but he's better than Guskov so he should win by closing the distance, clinching and testing out the takedown defense of Guskov.
If Pauga can't get his 2nd UFC win here, his future doesn't look bright in the company so I think -135 is a pretty good price on Pauga to beat Guskov.
Jeremiah Wells -175 v Max Griffin +145
I think the value is in the dog here as both guys are coming off of losses. Griffin lost to the up and coming Michael Morales as a big underdog, but he performed well doing some damage to Morales, and he had success closing the distance and controlling Morales.
Wells is coming off a loss where he dominated by taking Harris down, and controlling the entire fight, but then got caught in a random choke late in the fight, and it was concerning for Wells that he looked tired in round three.
Griffin needs to not get taken down early, and if he can keep it standing I think he can make the first couple rounds close and if Wells starts to fade like he did against Harris, Griffin can squeeze out a close victory.
This probably won't be a sexy fight to watch as both guys like to fight in close quarters with lots of clinching and holding, but there's a lot of value on Griffin in this spot.
Devin Clark -198 v Marcin Prachnio +164
I love good betting opportunities against Marcin Prachnio, and this could be another good one. I think he's slow on the feet, doesn't have good striking, and has bad cardio and bad takedown defense.
He's 3-2 in his last five fights, which is a miracle as he beat William Knight when Knight froze in the fight and refused to strike and got booted from the UFC after that.
He beat Ike Villaneuva who was way past his prime, and his win against Khalil Rountree is by far his best win, but make no mistake…he's not good.
He was dominated in his last fight and eventually got subbed in the third. Devin Clark is coming off a loss to Nzechukwu where he got submitted in round three, but he had his moments in the clinch and striking.
He's not elite, but he's better than Prachnio. He has better cardio for sure, and that will be the biggest difference here as Clark should wear down Prachnio sooner rather than later en route to victory.
Hyder Amil -198 v Fernie Garcia +164
Garcia desparately needs a win as he's dropped the first three fights in his UFC career, and he just hasn't shown any signs of upside.
He was just dominated by Nakamura with wrestling and ground game, and that's what Amil likes to do so I don't see this as a good matchup for Garcia. In his last fight he really looked like he had lost all his confidence, and was constantly backing up or getting man handled in the wrestling.
My worry about betting on Amil is that we've seen these guys come in from Contender Series and look underwhelming in their UFC debut so the way I'll play this is to take this fight to go the distance.
All of Garcia's fights have gone the distance as he has good defense and good cardio, and Amil barely won his Contender Series by decision. Neither of these guys are finishers, I like to go the distance.
Lomo Lookboonmee -270 v Bruna Brasil +220
This isn't a high level of MMA we will see so I can't get to the window on either of these women. Bruna Brasil is pretty low volume on the feet and is coming off a win against Shauna Bannon, but Bannon is terrible and Brasil didn't exactly dominate.
Beofre Bannon, she faced Denise Gomes and got knocked out in round two, but she did good in the first round pushing Gomes against the fence and landing good shots inside the clinch. She has some decent skills, but just doesn't have much upside.
Lookboonmee is coming off a nice submission win against Elise Reed where she didn't have a great first round, but she came out in round tow, immediately took Reed down and grabbed the nice submission win. No chance I'm laying -270 on Lookboonmee, but I don't trust Brasil so this is a pass for me.
Bolaji Oki -310 v Damir Hadzovic +250
Oki is coming off an impressive win on Contender Series and he's a rightful favorite here. He has really good striking with his hands and legs and showed he has KO power on CS.
I thought he looked nervous at first, but he settled in and once he landed a couple big shots he opened up and finished the fight.
He faces Hadzovic who is 37, and is just not very good. He got dominated in his last fight which was 19 months ago, and before that he won against a terrible Yancy Medeiros by decision, but he struggled way more than he should have.
He doesn't have good movement these days, his strikes aren't scaring anyone and he doesn't have a ground game that Oki should be scarred of. I worry laying big juice on the sexy Contender Series favorite, but this a great matchup for Oki as he's much more athletic and powerful.
Carlos Prates -258 v Trevin Giles +210
We have another Contender Series winner here, and Prates was the most impressive fighter to come from Contender Series in my opinion last season, and on paper he should roll here.
Giles has fought some interesting guys recently as he lost to Gabriel Bonfim, and before that he lost a close fight to Preston Parsons who is a wrestler/ grappler and before that he won a decision against Cosce who is awful.
Before that he lost to Michael Morales and Dricus Du Plessis, and somehow beat Roman Dolidze who was just in a main event.
Prates in a fantastic striker who is technically sound and he has tons of muay thai and kickboxing fights on his resume and he's made the transition to MMA nicely.
The way for Giles to win this is to try and clinch up Prates, take him down and hopefully tire him out and squeak out some close rounds because on the feet it's Prates all day.
I just don't think Giles will be able to do that with extended success so as nervous as I get taking heavy favorites from Contender Series, I like Prates.
The other sneaky thinig I like about Prates is that he's training with the Fighting Nerds who have a great track record of coming with winning strategies for fighters.
Rodolfo Vieira -120 v Armen Petrosyan +100