UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for February 3rd with Roman Dolidze and Nassourdine Imavov headlining the event in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Roman Dolidze vs Nassourdine Imavov: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Thomas Petersen -166 v Jamal Pogues +140
These are two big guys that will square off, and I think this could be a situation where neither can get a real advantage on the other and the fight ends up being close, and it goes the distance.
Petersen is coming from Contender Series, but his competition has been garbage. His one loss was in LFA to Waldo Cortes-Acosta who is in UFC now so it's concerning that he lost to the one UFC caliber fighter he's faced.
He likes to take guys down and end the fight with ground and pound or submission, but Jamal Pogues is not easy to take down as he's a big guy with lots of power.
Pogues also doesn't have amazing cardio, and his last three fights (one on Contender Series, two in UFC) have gone the distance and that's how I'll play this one.
Once it gets out of the first round, I don't think these guys will have the stamina to get a finish so I'll play this to go the distance.
Marquel Mederos -162 v Landon Quinones +136
This should be a fun fight that takes place on the feet as both guys are talented strikeers. After watching Quinones lose within a minute on TUF, I didn't have faith in him when he made his debut in the UFC against Haqparast, but he had a good performance in a loss as he made it all three rounds and had some good moments with leg kicks and punches.
Mederos has looked great in his last two fights as he got quick knockouts in Fury FC and on Contender Series, and on Contender Series he fought off a grappler for the first few minutes before landing a brutal knee that got the win.
Two fights ago he went to decision against a grappler so I think he's more well rounded than Quinones, but I think we could see a finish in this fight from either guy so I think this fight doesn't go the distance.
Both guys have KO power, and I watched Quinones show terrible ground game on TUF so there are lots of paths for both these guys to finish each other.
I expect a brutal fight with lots of damage so I'll wait til props come out and take it to not go the distance. No strong opinion on who will win, but Quinones is certainly a live dog in this one.
Julija Stoliarenko -122 v Luana Carolina +102
It feels like this fight comes down to Carolina not getting in an armbar, and if she stays out of trouble in the submission win she will get the win. Stoliarenko is 2-4 in her last five fights with her two wins being armbar submissions in the first round.
Carolina isn't an amazing fighter, but she's coming off a nice win against Petrovic where she showed good cardio, good defense in the clinch and on the ground where she was able to transition from defense to offense and I think she can stay out of trouble for three rounds here to get the win.
I probably won't get the window on this fight, but Carolina at plus money is the play here as I can't get behind a one trick pony like Stoliarenko.
Jeong Yeong Lee -135 v Blake Bilder +114
Bilder is coming off a loss to Kyle Nelson where Nelson all of a sudden had amazing cardio and shocked everyone with a great performance.
Bilder looked overconfident and just came up short in all aspects of the fight to get his first loss. I don't really know what Bilder does great.
He can grapple, he can get takedowns, he can strike, but he doesn't do any of those things at an elite level so I'm skeptical of him.
Lee is a striker with loads of finishes on his record, but he won a split decision in his last fight against a grappler who was constantly shooting for takedowns.
Lee was able to fend him off and win the 2nd and 3rd rounds with his striking so this will be interesting to see if Bilder pushes for the clinch and takedowns or if he tries to strike to Lee.
This is a tough fight to handicap, but I'll lean Bilder as I think the loss against Nelson might have knocked him off his high horse and get him a bit more focused and I think he can squeeze out a couple of rounds to win by decision.
Themba Gorimbo -235 v Pete Rodriguez +190
This is a classic striker vs grappler as Gorimbo will try and get this fight to the ground while Rodriguez is a boxer and will do whatever he can to keep it on the feet.
I don't know what to make of Rodriguez as he made his debut against Jack Madellena on short notice and he got KO'd, and they gave him a layup in his next fight that he won in the first round.
Gorimbo isn't a great fighter, but he's effective at holding guys down on the mat and that's probably what will happen here. I'll make this quick…don't bet on this fight. There's no value anywhere.
Azat Maksum -195 v Charles Johnson +205
I've never been a Charles Johnson fan, and I've done well betting against him recently. His wins in the UFC are a split decision to Zhumagulov, and to Jimmy Flick who is terrible, and other than that he continues to be a fade.
Maksum made his debut against Tyson Nam and got the close decision win, but we were all surprised that he didn't grapple and wrestle more, and I thought he was fortunate to get the win.
Maksum is undefeated, but I hope he's improved since his fight against Tyson Nam as Johnson will make this close on the feet and on the ground. Both guys have good cardio, but not a lot of finishing ability here so I like this fight to go the distance.
Molly McCann -300 v Diana Belbita +220
This is a rematch from 2019 where McCann took the decision win, and while I'm not excited to lay -300 on McCann, I'm also not excited to lay +220 on Belbita, but I'm excited to take this fight to go the distance.
Belbita has one fight in the UFC that hasn't gone the distance, and that was where she lost to a first round armbar, and Molly McCann isn't getting an armbar in this fight.
The last four fights for McCann haven't gone the distance, but she lost two fights to submission specialists, and she knocked out two fighters who aren't very good on the feet.
With McCann's last four fights ending early, yet the line being this juiced, the books are telling us they expect a long fight and I'll agree with them. This is a great parlay piece for this card.