UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for April 27th with Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez headlining the main event in a flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.
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Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Maheshate -245 vs Gabriel Benitez +200
Fairly low level fight, but it will probably take place on the feet where both guys have bad striking defense so it wouldn't surprise me if both guys are beat up and bloodied by the end of the fight.
Maheshate is bigger, and probably has more power, but his striking isn't creative, and he's a bit slow. Benitez has only beaten bad fighters in the UFC, and he was just beaten up and submitted by Jim Miller, and I really don't see any upside in him.
Maheshate will have more power, but I'm not laying -245 on him as he's coming off a bad KO loss and I don't know how his chin is going to hold up. It's dog or pass in this fight, but I'll pass.
Ivana Petrovic -455 vs Na Liang +350
Na Liang is 0-3 in the UFC, and she's looked bad in all three fights. She doesn't have power on the feet, and she gets dominated on the ground as well. She's active, and fast, but her skills just aren't there.
Petrovic isn't great either as she lost in her UFC debut against Luanna Carolina, and there was a lot of clinching and ground control in that fight, and while Petrovic came out on the losing end, she's better than Liang, and I think she's stronger which gives here the advantage in these exchanges.
Both have questionable striking, but Petrovic has more power than Liang. Liang just puts herself in bad positions, and while the speed could give Petrovic some problems, in the end, Liang will fade the longer the fight goes and Petrovic should win a sloppy fight by decision
James Llontop -140 vs Gabe Green +115
I'll gladly take the plus money on Gabe Green here. I've had a great read on his fights as I've cashed on his last 3 fights, and I think we're getting plus money on him because he's lost two in a row, but his losses were to Ian Garry and Bryan Battle, two great fighters. Llontop is coming off a nice win on Contender Series, but I wasn't all that impressed.
He has a good striking game, and solid clinch work for regional scenes, but is it good enough against a UFC Veteran who's tough and has knockout potential? I don't think so.
Fading the Contender Series fighters from the fall has been a really good strategy, and I'll keep doing it here. Green will be able to land strikes against Llontop, and I think Green is going to have stretches of control time against him en route to a victory. Gabe Green is a great underdog play.
Ketlen Souza -325 vs Marnic Mann +260
We didn't get to see much of Souza in her UFC debut as Karine Silva took her down and got her in a kneebar early in round 1 so I have to go back to her Invicta fights to see her style.
She's shown some moments of good striking, and she has good top position and ground and pound, and honestly, it won't take much to beat Marnic Mann. Mann is small at only 5 feet tall, and she's constantly searching for the takedown, but she's not that good at it, and on the feet, her striking is really bad.
Take this fight to go the distance for sure as I don't see how either of these women have the finishing ability over the other, and Souza is the pick, but this is priced pretty accurately so Souza by
decision is a solid play.
Don'Tale Mayes -162 vs Caio Machado +136
This is the kind of fight we get the week after UFC 300. This is a low-level fight with two big guys, and they will both be out of energy in the second round if it makes it that far.
Machado is early finish or nothing as both his losses as a pro were by decision, and in his UFC debut he got grinded out by Mick Parkin as Parkin was able to take him down and keep him there in round 2, and he landed enough strikes in round 3 to get the win.
Mayes looked terrible in his last fight against Nascimento as he was slow and out of shape, and offered no offense, and that fight had less action than Machado-Parkin.
No chance I'm laying -162 on Mayes with as out of shape as he looked, last fight I'll take a sprinkle on Machado at plus money, and be warned that if this fight gets out of the first round it will be a snoozefest.
Michal Figlak -135 v Austin Hubbard +110