UFC 298 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 298 predictions and picks for February 17th with Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria headlining the event in a featherweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.
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Alexander Volkanovski vs Ilia Topuria: UFC 298 Main Event
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UFC 298 Predictions
Miranda Maverick -205 v Andrea Lee +170
Lee has lost three in a row but it's been a crazy group of opponents with Araujo, Barber and Natalia Silva. She hasn't been finished in any of those fights, but she's a big underdog here because Maverick should be able to take Lee down and win the wrestling and ground game.
Maverick lost to Jasudavicius in June, but an eye poke really took her out of the fight early, and she came back with an armbar win over Cachoeira in July.
I expect Maverick to try and get this to the ground early where she feels most comfortable, and I think she'll have success there. Maverick by decision is a good play as Lee has good cardio and hasn't been finished since 2016.
Oban Elliott -290 v Val Woodburn +235
Elliott had a crazy fight on Contender Series where he was almost finished a couple times, but he showed crazy toughness and weathered teh storm and came back to win.
I don't think he's an amazing fighter, but he has an amazing gas tank with some power, but his striking defense needs a lot of work.
Val Woodburn got knocked out by Bo Nickal, an elite wrestler, which was a horrible look and while I don't think he's good, I don't think he should be this big of an underdog.
These Contender Series guys aren't having great performances in the UFC debut so there's no way I'm laying -290 on Elliott, even though he should win. Stay away from this fight as there are a lot of questions about both guys.
Danny Barlow -180 v Josh Quinlan +155
Again, a Contender Series winner as a big favorite, and I just can't lay this big of a price on a one dimensional fighter like Barlow.
He's a striker, and not only is he a one dimensional fighter, he's a one arm power puncher as he has a strong left, but that's about it. He's fought bad competition, and while Quinlan isn't great he's had better experience and uses kicks and jabs better than Barlow.
Unfortunately, Quinlan got pieced up in his last fight against Trey Waters on the feet, and if he can't sure up his striking defense, Barlow will have the opportunity to land the big shot.
Quinlan looked good in his career until he got busted for steroids, and then he looked terrible in his last fight where he was off the juice, but the USDA is out of testing the fighters so who knows if he's on the juice again. This fight is an absolute stay away from all angles of betting.
Rinya Nakamura -850 v Carlos Vera +540
This line is pretty crazy so there's no value betting on Nakamura, but I'm surely not betting on Carlos Vera who got dominated by Brad Katona on The Ultimate Fighter.
Nakamura is relentless in attacking takedowns, and he has great cardio so I think he'll be too much for Vera.
If I was forced to play something on this fight it would be for it to go the distance or Nakamura by decision as Vera showed good defense on the ground against Katona so he's going to be tough to finish.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima -150 v Justin Tafa +125
Lima is coming of the crazy loss against Derrick Lewis where Lewis surprised him with a flying knee, and the fight was over in 30 seconds so I don't think we can take much away from that fight.
Tafa is similar to Lewis in that he's dependent on the KO, but his power is undenaiable. All 7 of Tafa's wins are by KO, and his 2 losses in the UFC are decision losses.
If Lima stays away from the big punch of Tafa, he'll be able to land a lot of leg kicks and close the distance and work the clinch, and that's what I think he does.
The loss to Lewis was the first KO loss of his career, and I don't see him losing two in a row. I'll take Lima to get the win.
Amanda Lemos -135 v Mackenzie Dern +115
Mackenzie Dern has lost when she has a step up in competition as she's beaten Tecia Torres and Angela Hill, but lost to Marina Rodriguez, Xiaonan Yan, and Jessica Andrade in hier last 5 fights, and after getting KO'd against Andrade, I don't think she can handle power punchers, and Lemos has power.