UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for February 24th with Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev headlining the event in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 4:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
This card has a lot of favorites I really like, and as much as I've tried to research the underdogs, and find reasons to take them I think this card ends up being really chaulky with most of the favorites winning.
I think there are some great spots for favorites to win inside the distance, and those are noted in the writeups. Good luck!!!
I have a 5% BEST BET up for this card as we are coming off a big 5% win last weekend so I highly encourage everyone to get that play as we can absolutely build our bankrolls this weekend. Grab the play here!
Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady -155 v Loik Radzhabov +130
Radzhabov has looked completely different in his last two fights in the UFC. In his first UFC fight he took Ribovics down time and time again, and while he had some decent moments on the feet, Ribovics was able to land strikes.
In his next fight, he couldn't get Mateusz Rebecki down and Rebecki demolished him on the feet with leg kicks, and punches and eventually he got the KO win.
So we know Radzhabov has bad strike defense and good takedown offense. I remember Al-Selwady well as I picked him to pull the upset on Contender Series against highly touted prospect George Hardwick, and he fought well with the striking and pressure en route to a solid decision win.
The question is, will his striking be good enough to exploit the bad defense of Radzhabov? I think it will be.
His cardio looked good, and he just has to stuff a couple of takedowns and he should be able to soften up Radzhabov on the feet. It should be a close fight, but I don't like what I've seen from Radzhabov, I like Selwady by decision.
Vinicius Oliviera -170 v Yanis Ghemmouri +142
Ghemmouri doesn't strike me as a guy with a long career in the UFC as he lost his only UFC fight to Gomis by taking a brutal body kick in round three that put him down, but he had lost the first two rounds as well.
He's a rangy kickboxer, but he doesn't have much power, and his defense isn't great. Oliviera is a powerful striker with solid leg kicks and strikes, and he can be a bit wild, but when he lands clean it can put your lights out as we saw him brutally KO his opponent on Contender Series.
Unfortunately, he leaves himself wide open for counters. I agree with him being the favorite here as Ghemmouri doesn't appear to have the power to scare Oliviera, and while I think Ghemmouri can touch him, I think eventually Oliviera lands a power shot to get the KO or wobble Ghemmouri to win the round.
Ghemmouri getting knocked out by Gomis isn't a great look as Gomis isn't a huge power striker so this fight spells trouble for Ghemmouri in my opinion.
Javid Basharat -700 v Aiemann Zahabi +360
Zahabi is coming off the quick KO win against Aoriqileng last June, and it was very well set up, but it was one minute into the fight so we didn't get to see his skills over a long period of time.
He only fights once a year, and in 2022 beat Ricky Turcios in a pretty boring fight that took place completely on the feet, and we really haven't seen his ground game and I'm pretty sure Basharat will make sure to test that out.
Basharat is on a tear as he's 14-0 as a professional, and 3-0 in the UFC with all wins coming by decision. He can piece up opponents on the feet, and he can take guys down and control them on the ground, and I suspect he'll do the same here.
I have no clue what to expect from Zahabi's ground game and takedown defense, but Zahabi is nothing special on the feet so I see Basharat figuring him out pretty quickly and dominating the fight like he has in his previous UFC fights.
Using Basharat as a parlay piece is a great spot, or wait til props come out and play him by decision.
Ludoveit Klein -800 v AJ Cunningham +550
Klein gets a short notice replacement in AJ Cunningham, and normally I get a bit nervous betting against these short notice guys who have nothing to lose, but Klein should roll Cunningham.
Cunningham is coming off Contender Series where he got knocked out by Steven Nguyen, and I don't think Nguyen is that good.
Klein demolished Bahamondes in his last fight, and looked fantastic, and if he's 75% of the fighter he was in that fight he should run through Cunningham. Wait til props come out and take Klein inside the distance.
Steve Erceg -305 v Matt Schnell +245
It's a pretty steep line on Erceg who is 2-0 in the UFC, but he has looked great against David Dvorak and Alessandro Costa.
His striking has been crisp, and he has good takedown and ground game, and cardio is no issue, but this is an interesting matchup against Schnell. Schnell is 1-2 in his last three, but could easily be 0-3 as he got the win in the insane Sumudaerji fight, but his losses are to Matheus Nicolau and Brandon Royval so on paper this looks like a big step down in competition.
However, I can also make the case that Schnell is on a rapid decline as his last three losses have been by finish, and he absorbed a ton of damage against Sumaderji.
Watching Schnell fight Nicolau, he just looked tentative, and he got knocked down on a big shot in the first round before getting finished in the second so I don't trust his chin. I like Erceg to win, but I'm not laying -305. No bets on this fight as the price has taken me out of the market.
Chris Leroy Duncan -305 v Claudio Ribeiro +245
I'm not high on Ribeiro at all as he's powerful, but he's also flat-footed with bad cardio. He beat Joseph Holmes in the UFC, but Holmes is awful and Ribeiro has been finished in his other two fights so any decent UFC fighter he's faced, he's lost convincingly to.
Duncan suffered his first loss of his career against Petrosyan, but responded well by getting the finish over Denis Tiululin where he clinched Tiululin against the fence the entire first round, and then knocked him out with his solid striking.
He has unorthodox striking, and comes from strange angles, and it can look odd at times, but it seems to work for him, and I think it will work here.