UFC 299 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 299 predictions and picks for March 9th with Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera h eadlining the event in a bantamweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.
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Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera: UFC 299 Main Event
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UFC 299 Predictions
Maryna Moroz -218 v Joanne Wood +180
If anyone tells you to lay -200 on Maryna Moroz in this fight, run and report them to the authorities. Moroz is not good, she's lost two straight, and in her last fight she got knocked down by a solid punch, and she got caught in a guillotine and she tapped with one second left on the clock.
She has started an Onlyfans account which is a giant red flag, and I'm not impressed with what I've seen from her the last two fights.
Wood is pretty limited in what she can do offensively, but she has good cardio, and she has good volume which looks great in the judge's eyes.
Betting on Wood in this fight will be nerve-wracking as she can get hit, and she probably doesn't have the power or submission game to finish, but I'd much rather be sitting on a +180 ticket than a -218 ticket in a fight that should be close to equal odds.
I won't get the window on a side on this one, but taking this fight to go the distance is probably the best bet in this fight as both fighters don't seem to have finishing potential these days.
Assu Almabayev -425 v CJ Vergara +330
The entire MMA community will be betting on Almabayev this weekend after he finished Ode Osbourne in his UFC debut, and I understand why.
He looked great, but we've seen some of these fighters look great in their UFC debut and then struggle in their second fight. My theory is that in their UFC debut, they aren't overthinking anything, there's no pressure, and they can just let loose and fight free.
In their second fight, there are expectations and more pressure and some guys melt under the pressure. Almabayev has really good takedowns and solid ground game as we saw against Osbourne, and it's not a good sign that Vergara was dominated on the ground by Taira, but I suspect Vergara is going to be better than people think in this one.
Vergara has won his last two fights against bad fighters, but he has to have confidence, and I like the experience he got against Taira, and surely that's all he's been working on getting ready for this fight.
Almabayev will be the pick, but the price is too steep for me to bet on. I'll pass on betting on it, and I might regret it, but I'm a bit of a cautious bettor.
Robelis Despaigne -345 v Josh Parisian +240
Here's another fight with a huge favorite that everyone will parlay, but Despaigne's last three fights have lasted a combined 17 seconds, and he only has four fights total.
So he has no cage time, and his four opponents have a combined one win. He's fought absolute nobodies, and I can't believe that someone that has fought this level of competition is a -345 over anyone in the UFC, even Josh Parisian.
Parisian isn't very good, and this is clearly a setup fight for Despaigne, but I smell a rat with this fight. We don't know what Despaigne's cardio will be if he doesn't flatline Parisian early, and what happens if Parisian actually fights back?
None of Despaignes's opponents have tried any offense, and we don't know how he'll react to getting hit or pushed against the fence.
Too many questions to lay -345 on a guy with this little experience so I won't do that. The under 1.5 is -298, I think that's a much better wager than the Despaigne ML.
If Despaigne wins, it will be early, but if Parisian surprises him and it turns out Despaigne has no chin, and no defense, we still cash on an early Parisian upset. Under 1.5 is how I'll play this one.
Ion Cutelaba -135 v Philipe Lins +114
Philipe Lins has quietly put together a three-fight winning streak over Prachnio, OSP and Maxim Grishin, and to be honest he's looked decent to me.
He has good forward pressure, he holds guys against the fence and gets control time and he lands powerful shots, including kicks and punches.
It's not exciting at times, but it's been effective for him. Cutelaba got a much-needed win in his last fight as he had lost three straight, but the win was against Tanner Boser who has turned out to be a bust in the UFC.
Cutelaba's last four fights have been early finishes so we have a bit of a clash of styles as Lins is more methodical, and Cutelaba is more kill-or-be-killed. I just can't be too impressed with Cutelaba beating Boser who was fighting down a weight class.
Cutelaba is sloppy with his defense, and I can Lins dragging the fight on and tiring out Cutelaba into rounds two and three with his clinch work and kicks. If Lins minds his P's and Q's early on and avoids the finish, I think he wins late or by decision. Great value on Lins here at plus money.
Michel Pereira -142 v Michal Oleksiejczuk +120
For whatever reason, I've had a great read on Olek for a few years. I've correctly picked his last five fights so maybe I'm due for regression or I just have him figured out, but I think this is a tough matchup for him and I like Pereira to win.
Olek is 5-2 in his last seven fights with his losses being to Dustin Jacoby, a kickboxer, and Caio Borralho, an elite grappler. His wins have been against Bukauskas before he got cut, Sam Alvey, Cody Brundage, Shamil Gamzatov, and Chidi Njokuani.
In his last fight against Njokuani, Olek was getting rocked on the feet until Chidi just gassed out of nowhere and Olek got the finish so I'm seeing Olek beat the guys he should, and losing to the guys he should, and I think he Periera is a bit more explosive with more creative striking.
Olek is a talented striker, but he has a low ceiling, and when he's at his best, he just can't outstrike the best guys in the division.
The gas tank and cardio of Pereira is always a concern, but he's done a good job managing it recently as he's won six in a row, and showed the ability to go the distance, and win early with KO power.
Watching Olek get hurt by Chidi in the first round was a pretty big red flag, and if Chidi doesn't fall off a cliff, he gets the win, and that's what I think happens here with Pereira just being the better striker on the feet.
Kyler Phillips -238 v Pedro Munhoz +195
I'm not sure why Phillips is this big of a favorite as both guys have somewhat similar styles as they both stick and move, they both move quite a bit on the feet, and they are points fighters more than finishers.
Munhoz doesn't have a finish since 2019, and Phillips has only finished bad fighters in the UFC. Phillips is coming off a nice win against Raoni Barcelos where he used his speed and crisp striking to get the decision win, while Munhoz got beat at his own game by Marlon Vera who landed consistent jabs all fight en route to an easy win over Munhoz.
Munhoz will try and get his leg kicks working, and Phillips will try and avoid those by moving in and out of the pocket.
Phillips has had cardio concerns, and he does slow down in the third so I expect this to be a pretty close fight late.
Because I think it will be a close fight, the value is definitely on the side of Munhoz. He's a big underdog because he lost to Vera who is fighting for the title now? Line is way off. Dog or pass on this one.
Mateusz Gamrot -440 v Rafael Dos Anjos +340
Gamrot is a massive favorite, and there's a real chance that this -440 looks like a bargain after this fight. RDA is a legend who is 39 years old, and he's fighting one of the best in the UFC who will put on a clinic in this fight in my opinion.
Gamrot suffered the loss to Dariush in late 2022 and he's responded by taking out Jalin Turner and Rafael Fiziev, but the win against Turner was a split decision, and he beat Fiziev after Fiziev won round one, and then broke his foot throwing a kick.
His wrestling might not be super exciting at times, but it's very technical and effective on the right opponent, and I'm not sure RDA is fast enough and athletic enough to thwart the offense.
RDA's last three wins are to Bryan Barbarena, Moicano and Paul Felder, and he's lost to Fiziev and Luque, and that fight against Luque was not a great look for RDA as he got tired, and could never mount much offense.
Gamrot should win this, and taking him to win by decision looks to be a solid prop as Gamrot is not much of a finisher against capable fighters, which RDA is.
Maycee Barber -205 v Katlyn Cerminara +170
Barber has been getting better and better with the striking and aggression in every fight, and it culminated with her destroying Amanda Ribas last June.
Her striking on the feet was great, her takedowns and ground and pound looked great, and it's really all about can she deal with the length of Cerminara as Cerminara loves the jab and kick to establish distance to piece up her opponent.
Barber can leave herself open to get hit with strikes so I think Cerminara can have success, but I think Barber is going to push through it and close the distance, and once she can get inside the long arms and legs, she can do damage to Cerminara.
Cerminara lost to Fiorot who is an elite striker, but Barbers power and will to finish will be the difference I think. I wasn’t going to make this an official play, but after this quote from Katlyn at media day, I would now be stunned if Katlyn won.
This is from Aaron Bronsteter, a reporter at UFC media day:
Katlyn Chookagian at UFC 299 Media Day says that her return to fighting is largely because she did several IVF treatments and unfortunately suffered two miscarriages. She wants to take her mind off of the sadness from what she has endured.
A sad situation for Katlyn for sure, but her last fight was almost a year and a half ago, and it turns out she’s been trying to get pregnant through IVF and it hasn’t worked resulting in physical and mental trauma. This is a really bad sign for Katlyn as she’s clearly struggling with personal matters, and Barber is in a groove and in a much better mental and physical state.
Curtis Blaydes -110 v Jailton Almeida -110