UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for May 13 with Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Jailton Almeida headlining the event. The main card starts up at 3pm ET from the Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Jailton Almeida Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event
| Saturday, May 13 | UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars) |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Jairzinho Rozenstruik +400 vs Jailton Almeida -550 |
| Rounds: | 1.5 Rounds (Over +160 / Under -195) |
| Fight Time: | Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT |
| Arena: | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| TV: | ABC & ESPN+ |
UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis
Another winning week for us as we went 1-0 on Wagertalk official plays bringing our' record to 25-13 in 2023 for +27 units, and we have a 5% Best Bet up that we're very' excited for as we've been waiting for a couple weeks to fire on this one.
You can grab the play here: http://wt.buzz/al
I'm really high on Ulberg, and I love this matchup for him. He lost his UFC debut against Kennedy Nzechukwu when he had big time cardio issues and he gassed himself getting too over zealous, but he has looked much more patient since then and is getting so much better with each fight.
His next fight after Kennedy, he focused on his cardio and went the distance against Cherant in a unanimous win, and the next two fights he showed his progression with striking as he knocked out Nchukwi in the first round, and then put on an impressive first round against Nebumereanu where he landed hard leg kicks and got the KO.
What I loved about that fight was that Negumereanu wanted to grapple and Ulberg stayed away and used his stance control beautifully to control the fight from the beginning setting up his jab and finishing shots.
Potieria got knocked out by Negumereanu two fights ago as Potieria got taken down, and got exhausted until Negumereanu knocked him out in round 2.
His next fight he got a complete layup as he fought Shogun Rua in Rua's retirement fight, which was a joke. Rua was way too old, and has lost three straight and Potieria got the finish in round 1.
I don't like the skill set of Potieria compared to Ulberg, I think Ulberg has a big advantage in striking, and especially with the leg kicks he demonstrated in the last fight.
Ulberg has an incredible group of fighters he trains with, including Adesanya, and his power and newly found patience should let him control the fight and set up the knockout over Potieria who just isn't as polished as Ulberg and has too many holes in his game. I like Ulberg to roll here.
Jailton Almeida -550 v Jairzinho Rozenstruik
The only thing I like in this fight is for it to not go the distance. Rozenstruik has been to decision three times in 17 fights, and Almeida has seen the third round once in 20 fights.
I wouldn't put Almeida in your parlays as his level of competition has been really bad (Shamil Bdurakhimov, Anton Turkalj, and Parker Porter, Danilo Marques) in the UFC, and I wouldn't be surprised if Rozenstruik's striking gets Almeida to back off at the start of the fight.
If Rozenstruik doesn't damage him early then Almeida will eventually get the fight to the ground where a finish is imminent. I won't be playing a side, I'll just look to use NOT TO GO THE DISTANCE as a parlay piece.
'
Anthony Smith -105 v Johnny Walker -115
Here's another fight that shouldn't go the distance as Johnny Walker has three decisions in 27 fights including three first round finishes in a row. Anthony Smith has three fights in a row that finished early so the trend is our friend in this one.
I honestly don't know what to expect from Anthony Smith in this fight as the last time we saw him he broke his ankle against Ankalaev, but I would think he would want to get Walker down on the mat to hunt submissions like he did against Spann and Clark, but the 34 year old has a lot of wear and tear on his body and I don't trust him.
Walker has two straight wins, but his chin hasn't been tested in either of those fights and Smith will surely want to throw some jabs to see how Walker reacts. I don't want to have any of my money on either of these guys.
'
Ian Garry -250 v Daniel Rodriguez +200
I'm not real high on either one of these guys despite their records. Garry is 11-0 and while he is getting better, I just see holes in his game. He uses his length well, but I don't think his power scares anyone, especially early in the fight.
He hasn't shown much with grappling, and his opponents haven't been good to take advantage of his weak striking defense. He's done what's expected, but I feel like we just kinda get the bare minimum out of his performances.
Rodriguez is another that is a bit lackluster in my opinion as he got submitted by Magny last fight, and before that he won against Li Jingliang in a fight I'm not sure he won.
I really don't know what he does great as his striking is decent, but his ground game isn't very good, and this is a guy that went the distance against Mike Perry I would take this fight to start round 2 or maybe even go the distance as I don't think either guy can finish each other. If I had to pick a fighter, I would lean Garry by decision, but there's no chance I'm laying -250.
'
Mackenzie Dern -185 v Angela Hill +150
Pretty simple fight here. If Angela Hill can avoid the submission and keep it on the feet, she should win by decision.