Free Daily NFL Lock Pick, Thursday November 16th: Baltimore vs Cincinnati 8:15pm ET
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It's Saturday night and we have a tremendous Big 12 matchup between first-place and No. 7 Texas (9-1 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 6-1 B12) against second-place Iowa State (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-2 B12) from Ames, Iowa from Jack Trice Stadium at 8pmET.
These teams met last season with the Longhorns getting the close win 24-21 at home as a 16-point favorite.
Texas has one loss and it came against rival Oklahoma from the Cotton Bowl on Oct. 7, 34-30. Since then, the Longhorns have won four straight to place No. 7 in the latest College Football Playoff Poll. As good as Texas is, they will need help to make the playoffs and will need to win out, beating Iowa State and Texas Tech and winning the Big 12 title.
The Horns are coming off edging TCU on the road 29-26 as a 13-point favorite. The good news is that they found a way to win with Quinn Ewers completing 22 of 33 for 317 yards with a TD and a pick. Ewers was returning from a right shoulder injury that caused him to miss two games. The bad news was that running back Jonathan Brooks, who had two TDs and 178 all-purpose yards, tore his ACL.
This was not only a devastating injury for Texas, but also for Brooks, who was considered a top NFL prospect. Brooks led the team with 1,139 yard s (6th in the nation) and was averaging 113.9 yards per game (seventh-best), along with 11 touchdowns.
Ewers is completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,232 yards with 14 TDs and four picks. He'll have to carry the offense even more with Brooks out. C.J. Baxter, who ran for 61 yards against TCU and 390 yards this season is the likely No. 1 back now. Xavier Worth, who has 59 catches for 757 yards and four TDs, will also benefit with Ewers back and Brooks out.
The biggest concern for Texas is a pass defense that allows 247 yards per game to rank 107th in the nation. They allowed 302 yards passing to TCU in their last game and gave the Horned Frogs a chance to come back after being down 29-13 late in the fourth quarter. The Horns do very well against the run (90.4ypg).
Free Daily NFL Lock Pick, Thursday November 16th: Baltimore vs Cincinnati 8:15pm ET CLICK TO SEE PICK NOW