The Texas State Bobcats (6-4) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-7) on Nov. 18 in Jonesboro.
Texas State is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).
The Texas State vs. Arkansas St Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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Texas State vs Arkansas St Prediction for Week 12
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 62.2% confidence.
Texas State vs Arkansas St Spread Prediction for Week 12
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas State and Arkansas St, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Texas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+14.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+7.95 Units / 129% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+5.85 Units / 92% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 88% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Arkansas St Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas State is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Texas State is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.65 Units / 40.86% ROI
- Texas State is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -32.73% ROI
- Texas State is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 24.55% ROI
Arkansas St Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 5.41% ROI).
- Arkansas St is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 18.23% ROI
- Arkansas St is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Arkansas St is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Texas State is 8-17 (.308) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season– tied for 30th-worst in FBS; Average: .452
Texas State was 1-5 (.167) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2022 season– tied for 21st-worst in FBS; Average: .427
Texas State is 6-15 (.273) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 12th-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .422
Texas State is 3-9 (.231) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– tied for 31st-worst in FBS; Average: .405
Arkansas State is winless (0-6) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .312
Arkansas State is winless (0-5) when losing at least one fumble since the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .398
Arkansas State is 2-22 (.080) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .405