The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-135) on Sunday, March 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EST in Dunedin.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Phillies vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Phillies are 3-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 3-2 ATS.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 65.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+2.05 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 61 away games (+24.08 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 away games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.83 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 128 games (+7.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games at home (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 49 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 23.73% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 32% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 12.07% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -20% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 23.53% ROI).
- 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 61.21% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 13.39% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -23.15% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season (189 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (1,694/3,826) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH against his fastballs since the start of the 2021 season (598 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.3 MPH on inside pitches since the start of the 2021 season (459 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 85.3
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios had an ERA of 5.23 (172.0 IP)last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.35 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .288 (199-for-692) against Jose Berrios last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — second Percentile.
Jose Berrios allowed an OBP of .340 (751 PA’s) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — fourth Percentile.