Despite the fact that the Houston Astros are off to a woeful 7-16 start this season, Ariel Epstein isn't too concerned about their fortunes.
“I actually got a lot of heat for putting them in the top 10 of my power rankings,” said Epstein, a betting analyst for both Fanatics Sportsbook and the MLB Network. “They’re still a top five offense and their pitching has had a lot of injury problems. I compare them to LeBron James and the Lakers. The Astros know they don’t need to turn it on in April, just like LeBron James knows he doesn’t need to turn it on in November.”
Well, if the Astros are the Lakers, then the precocious Baltimore Orioles might be the Oklahoma City Thunder. After bottoming out in 2021 with a record of 52-110, the O's won 101 games last year and are so loaded with farm-system talent that Epstein wouldn't be surprised if they dealt a veteran just to make room for another young stud.
Calling Baltimore “the future of the American League,” she added, “The only thing with the Orioles that worries me is their youth, but they did what they needed to do and got an ace in Corbin Burnes.”
Burnes is currently a +475 favorite at Fanatics to win the AL Cy Young, while Colton Cowser has shot to the front of the AL Rookie of the Year field (+275) with teammate Jackson Holliday (5/1) still nipping at his heels in spite of a painfully slow start. And while the New York Yankees are unsurprisingly the team Fanatics bettors are backing most frequently to win the World Series (19.9% of tickets, 25.2% of handle), the Orioles (12/1 to win the World Series) are the only other team to reach double digits in either category (12.1% and 13.5%, respectively).
The Yankees are currently the third favorite (7/1) to win their first World Series since 2009, but Epstein thinks they don't stand a chance unless they get injured ace Gerrit Cole back and healthy for the playoffs.
“The Yankees need Gerrit Cole, no ifs, ands, or buts,” Epstein said. “If the Yankees don’t have Gerrit Cole, there’s no way their pitching staff can last. You need an ace to win the World Series. You really need a one-two punch. If you have to rely so much on your bullpen, at some point your bullpen is going to get tired.”
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Road favorites, player props doing well
Over at Caesars Sportsbook, baseball analyst Eric Biggio told Sports Handle, “Players are blindly betting on the Yankees, Braves, and Dodgers, which is no surprise. The public is definitely jumping on board with the Baltimore Orioles as well. A few surprise teams have gotten money daily and in the futures pool in the Guardians, Royals, and Pirates.”
From a day-to-day standpoint, Biggio said, “Road favorites have done very well so far, hitting at over 66 percent. Players have done well betting against the Rockies, White Sox, and Marlins, but not so much against the Oakland Athletics, as they have been somewhat competitive so far this season.”
Interestingly, Fanatics has actually written more World Series tickets for the Pirates than for the Dodgers, although the boys in blue are at or near the top in terms of bet tally and handle at DraftKings and BetMGM. But it's the Orioles who've paced the latter betting app in ticket count and amount wagered in the AL pennant market, making the Orioles BetMGM's biggest liability, ahead of the Diamondbacks and Yankees.
In terms of early-season MLB betting trends, the SuperBook's executive vice president of race and sports operations, Jay Kornegay, said, “The popularity of player props continues to grow. They will never be to the level of the games, but player props are here to stay.”