Week 10 of the 2022 NCAA college football season includes an SEC rivalry matchup between the Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory this Saturday as Auburn has lost four straight games while Mississippi State's dropped back-to-back games for the first time this fall.
After going winless in October, can Auburn finally put an end to its losing skid? Or will Mississippi State figure out a way to improve its home record to 5-0 this season?
Auburn vs Mississippi State Odds
According to FanDuel Sportsbook's'college football odds, Mississippi State is a heavy -490 favorite on the moneyline (12.5-point spread) in a game with a 50.5-point over/under.
What should college football fans expect in this matchup, and where can bettors find value?
Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction and Best Bet
After a promising 3-1 start, things have gone off the rails for Auburn. In addition to losing four straight games, the Tigers have allowed at least 41 points in each of their last three contests. The 43.7 PPG that they've surrendered in those games ranks second-worst in the entire nation over that span.
Though Mississippi State has also had a tough time winning games lately, its last two losses came against Alabama and Kentucky – both ranked at the time. The Bulldogs may have only averaged 11.5 points in those losses, but chances are they can bounce back against the Tigers' putrid defense.
While Auburn has one of the better pass defenses in college football, Mississippi State has a top-10 aerial attack. Quarterback Will Rogers is as solid as they come and has experience exploiting the Tigers, recording 415 passing yards with 6 touchdowns against Auburn last season.
Mississippi State has ranked as high as No. 16 this season and I expect Mike Leach's team to get back on track this weekend. Not only are the Bulldogs 14-6 straight up in their last 20 games against the Tigers, but they've also covered the spread in four of their last six meetings. With how both teams have looked this season, especially as of late, I'm backing Mississippi State at -12.5 on the spread.
I also don't think that a 50.5-point total is too much to overcome. Auburn and Mi ssissippi State have averaged 55.5 points in their last six matchups, exceeding 51 in four of those meetings. With how bad the Tigers' defense has been lately, watch for the Bulldogs to do most of the heavy lifting en route to the total going over 50.5 points.