Our analysis of the Virginia vs. Maryland prediction is shaped by the latest college football odds, as we consider two teams embarking on distinct journeys in their current seasons.
Though Virginia has opened the year with an 0-2 record, the Cavaliers certainly faced a stiffer schedule to this point than the one that Maryland has seen to start out 2-0.
Will the collision of these two sides in Week 3 reveal any issues for a Terrapins team that hasn't yet faced any quality opponents?
Here is our best Virginia vs. Maryland prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Virginia vs. Maryland prediction: Week 3
While Maryland is almost certainly the superior team in this matchup, I'm surprised we've seen aggressive line movement toward the Terrapins from the opening line. Maryland has won both of its games handily to begin the year, taking down Charlotte 38-20 and upending FCS Towson 38-6. But that might be the weakest scheduled start of any Power Five program in 2023.
While Maryland ultimately pulled away late against Charlotte, it should be noted that the 49ers actually led the Terps at halftime. That's concerning given Charlotte ranks 96th in total efficiency, according to FPI. I can forgive a slow start in Week 1, but it doesn't stiffen my confidence in Maryland's dog-walking any FBS foe at this point.
On paper, Virginia is arguably the worst Power Five program going this year. But having face d James Madison and Tennessee, the Cavaliers have challenged themselves and have learned plenty about what doesn't work. Like a baseball hitter using a weighted donut in the on-deck circle, Virginia should be more prepared to encounter a Power Five opponent this Friday than Maryland.
Taulia Tagovailoa threw multiple interceptions the only time he's faced an FBS defense this season. Maryland is a risk to play with its food a bit in this one.
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Virginia vs. Maryland best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia +14.5 | Virginia +15.5 | Virginia +14.5 | Virginia +14.5 | Virginia +14.5 |
| -110 | -115 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The majority of our best sports betting apps are in alignment on this spread, with DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 offering the Cavaliers at +14.5 with standard -110 odds.
Getting a full additional point to +15.5 at FanDuel while only sacrificing slightly on the odds (from -110 to -115) feels like a strong value. We'll play Virginia to +14 as a three-star recommendation.
Virginia vs. Maryland odds
Virginia vs. Maryland odds analysis
Maryland opened as a 13.5-point favorite and has seen an increase to that line across our best sportsbooks. Most have the line at -14.5, while FanDuel is up to -15.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. 67% of wagers on the spread have gone toward Maryland.
The total opened at 49.5 and has dipped across the board down to between 48 and 48.5. The majority of total wagers have checked in on the Over with bettors attacking the reduced number.
Virginia vs. Maryland game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 15 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: SECU Stadium, College Park, MD
- How to watch: FS1
- Weather: 69 degrees, 12-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
Virginia-Maryland prediction made Wednesday at 2:45 p.m. ET.
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