UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night Vegas predictions and picks for August 12 with Rafael Dos Anjos vs Vicente Luque headlining the event. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.
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Rafael Dos Anjos vs Vicente Luque: UFC Fight Night Vegas Main Event
UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions
Martin Buday -210 v Josh Parisian +170
This is one of those fights that bettors should just stay away from as Buday should win, but -210 in a fight like this is too steep.
Buday should be better on the feet with the crisper striking and better movement, but in his last fight against Jake Collier he was pushed up against the fence a big, and at the end of round one, was on the ground with Collier on top.
That being said, he's good in the clinch with knees and uppercuts, and against Josh Parisian it should be enough to win.
Parisian is slow with his strikes, and we saw in his last fight against Jamal Pogues that he can be taken down and controlled. Buday is 12-1 while Parisian is 2-3 in the UFC with his two wins being against bad opponents. I won't be betting on this fight, but Buday should win.
Luana Santos -140 v Juliana Miller +115
Juliana Miller won her UFC debut against Brogan Walker, but that win is not impressive based on how bad Walker is. In her next fight, she got absolutely dominated by Veronica Hardy who was 1-4 in the UFC.
Miller is too raw for this level and she has absolutely no striking game, and we saw a more athletic Hardy control her the entire fight.
Santos is making her UFC debut and is the rightful favorite as her striking is much better than Miller's, and Santos has a judo background and she showed two fights ago she can take an opponent down and keep her there for the duration of rounds.
Miller would have to have an immense level of improvement to win here and I don't see it. Santos at -140 seems like a bargain price to me.
Marcus McGhee -400 v JP Buys
McGhee comes in as a big favorite here, and I don't mind taking him as a parlay piece. McGhee got the call-up from LFA and got the round two submission against Journey Newson in his debut and he showed solid striking offense, a great pace, good pressure and a great overall skill set.
I don't see him going far in the UFC, but he should have success against guys like Newson and Buys. Buys is 0-3 in the UFC and this is probably his last fight if/when he loses.
Buys is weak on the feet with striking and defense and in his last fight, Cody Durden absolutely ran through him in one minute.
McGhee's pressure will certainly overwhelm Buys and my guess is McGhee gets the finish before it goes to the judges. Buys just doesn't have the skill to fight in the UFC, I see no path to victory for him, and I expect this to be the last time we see him in the UFC.
Francis Marshall -200 v Isaac Dulgarian +160
I bet on Marshall in his last fight against Gomis where he lost a split decision, but Marshall almost got the finish on the ground when he finally committed to wrestling Gomis.
He looked very tentative in the first round, and it cost him. I still love his skill set as he has power in his strikes when he decides to let loose, and he can take opponents down and finish like he almost did against Gomis. Dulgarian is coming in from the FAC, and he comes full speed ahead the second the fight starts.
All five of his fights have ended before the three-minute mark, but Marshall is a massive step up in competition.
We've never seen the cardio of Dulgarian, and if he starts as fast as he normally does and he doesn't get the finish early, Marshall will wear him down and get the finish eventually in rounds two or three.
I like Marshall to win, but his being tentative last fight makes me nervous, but he may not have time to be tentative as Dulgarian will probably rush him from the start. Wait until props come out and take this fight to avoid going the distance, and maybe parlay it with McGhee.
Jaqueline Amorim -275 v Montserrat Ruiz +210
This is a pretty big line on Amorim, and I don't really understand why. Ruiz lost in 35 seconds to Amanda Lemos's last fight, but before that beat Cheyanne Villesma with some pretty impressive pressure and energy which resulted in Amorim taking Villesma down several times and winning rounds.
Amorim looks good on the feet, but she lost her debut to Sam Hughes when Hughes took her down and controlled her in rounds two and three.
On the feet, Amorim is more polished, but Ruiz showed she can make a fight dirty and she can win on the ground, and with that being how Hughes beat Amorim there's no way I would lay -275 on Jacqueline.
I think Ruiz is a live dog here if she gets it to the ground, don't be surprised if Ruiz wins with her takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three. A sprinkle on the underdog is the only way to bet on this fight.
Josh Fremd -300 v Jamie Pickett +240