UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night Nashville predictions and picks for August 5 with Cory Sandhagen vs Rob Font headlining the event. The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN.
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Cory Sandhagen vs Rob Font: UFC Fight Night Nashville Main Event
UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions
Asu Almabaev -150 v Ode Osbourne +130
Interesting to see Almabaev as a favorite making his UFC debut against Osbourne, but I get it. Osbourne hasn't been impressive in the UFC going 4-3 with one of his wins being against a guy who is 4-4 as a pro. I'm just not sure what he does great.
He barely won a split decision against Charles Johnson (who I'm not high on at all), and he didn't overwhelm with striking or takedowns or ground game, and in his previous fight he got KO'd by Tyson Nam when he tried a really dumb flying knee that Nam cracked him on the way down.
Almabaev is tough to figure out beach he hasn't been fighting great competition in BRAVE CF. He fights a lot like Osbourne where he has finishes on his record, but against who? He won a close split decision against Zach Makovsky who fought in Bellator and in the UFC, but back in the mid 2010's.
He's 40 now and has lost three out of four and he almost beat Almabaev. No play on picking a winner, but 100% this will be in To Start Round 2 parlay as I think this has going the distance written all over it.
Both guys appear to be equal and this could be a close one with neither fighter doing a lot of damage to the other.
Jake Hadley -170 v Cody Durden +145
I understand why Hadley is the favorite here, but I think this fight is pretty close. Hadley is going to be the more active fighter on the feet, and his kicks and punches are pretty quick, and his ground game is really good as evident by his submission over Candelario.
Durden is going to try and backpack Hadley and make it a pure wrestling match, and he may have success with it as this will be Hadley's toughest test outside of Allan Nascimento who handed him his first loss.
I don't have any interest in betting who will win this fight, but overs definitely have my attention and I will certainly play this fight to start round 2.
Jeremiah Wells -150 v Carlston Harris +140
Really good matchmaking here and the price is right where I would put it. Wells is 4-0 in the UFC and Harris is on a 5-1 run, but let's be honest…not the best competition.
Harris just beat Jared Gooden who got booted from the UFC once before, and just isn't UFC caliber and Wells just beat Semelsberger who isn't looking good. I like Wells as his striking is definitely more crisp and in control on the feet as Harris lunges with his jabs and he telegraphs them with no creativity or set up.
He was able to get Gooden on the ground in rounds two and three last fight, but Gooden is so bad and offered no defense. Wells used takedowns of his own against Semelsberger and did decent ground and pound, and Semelsberger is better than Gooden so Wells's performance was better than Harris's in my opinion. I think Wells is a bit better everywhere, but especially in the striking department. I like Wells in this one.
Kyler Phillips -175 v Raoni Barcelos +150
I think this price is about right as Barcelos just doesn't seem to have it anymore. He's 36, and 1-3 in his last four with his win being against Trevin Jones who is on an 0-4 skid.
His last fight he got KO's in the first round by Nurmagomedov, and his speed has clearly diminished. He really doesn't have any upside, and I don't think he has much advantage over Phillips anywhere.
Phillips got a submission win in the third round against Rojo last time out showing that has skills that last over three rounds. Nurmagomedov was able to land kicks and strikes in the first round resulting in the KO, and I think Phillips will have the same success.
Phillips doesn't have the power of Nurmagomedov, but Phillips just has to stay out of the way of the body and head kicks or Barcelos and he should wear down Barcelos.
Barcelos's KO was a bad one as it was a short left hook and he bounced his head hard off the mat, and it was the first time he had been knocked out so it might be sign of things to come. Phillips is the play and -175 seems about the right price.
Billy Quarantillo -175 v Damon Jackson +150
Maybe a bit of overreaction here on Jackson as he just got finished by Dan Ige, but Ige looked fantastic from start to finish in that fight, and while Billy Q is good, on his best day he isn't as good as Ige was in that fight against Daman Jackson.
Before that fight Damon Jackson was 5-1 in the UFC with his loss being to Ilia Topuria. Billy Q fights are always fun with a lot of action, but he is actually 2-3 in his last five after Edson Barboza knocked him out with a knee in April.
Jackson's last two wins have come against wrestlers, but his decision win against Argueta doesn't tell the tale that Argueta was fighting up a weight division on short notice, and Jackson's win against Sabbatini was due to a quick head kick early in the fight that was a surprised to everyone.
It should be a fight with fireworks, and I give the edge to Billy Q with the speed and cardio if the fight gets to round 3. I'm not excited about laying -175 so I probably won't, but if this fight is 1-1 going into round 3, I would live bet Billy as he should win round 3.
Ignacio Bahamondes -200 v Ludovit Klein +170