UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for February 24th with Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval headlining the event in a flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Mexico City Arena in Mexico City, Mexico.
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Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
Muhammad Naimov -305 v Erik Silva +245
I had high hopes for Erik Silva after his Contender Series win, but he was pretty bad in his UFC debut. Either I had a bad read on him or he had a bad weight cut, but TJ Brown made easy work of him and got the submission win, which was supposed to be Silva's advantage.
Naimov got the crazy KO win against Mullarkey, but he followed it up with a nice win over Nathaniel Wood where he used his size to get takedowns and combined that with good striking on the feet.
It was a great performance, and if he repeats that he'll walk through Silva. It's a lot of juice so it's a parlay piece, but it's a pretty good parlay piece as I didn't like anything from Silva in his last fight.
Felipe dos Santos -285 v Victor Altamirano +230
Felipe dos Santos took on Manel Kape on very short notice in his debut, and even though he lost he looked really good and even Kape complimented him after the fight.
Striking looked god, cardio was really good for short notice, and he looked like a UFC caliber fighter. I'm not all that high on Altamirano as he has two UFC wins, but against two of the worst fighters on the roster.
Tim Elliott dominated him on the ground, and he lost a close split decision to Carlos Hernandez, but I don't like his skillset as he's not great anywhere.
I stay away from fighters who make their UFC debut on short notice and look good as they tend to regress in the next fight so this is a pass for me.
Over 1.5 is a solid parlay piece as these guys go the distance quite often (dos Santos in 3 straight and Altamirano in 5 out of the last 6).
Denys Bondar -105 v Luis Rodriguez -115
Here's my betting analysis for this fight. Don't bet your hard-earned money on either one of them. They are both wild, unorthodox and completely unpredictable, and that's why the odds are even.
They both swing wild, but I'm not sure either of these guys are UFC caliber. They don't have solid ground game or jiu jitsu, they don't set up power shots, they just swing away.
It should be a fun fight, but not bettable at all in my opinion. Ever so slight lean to Rodriguez as I think Bondar is bad and this could easily be his 3rd loss in a row in the UFC.
Fares Ziam -205 v Claudio Puelles +170
I wondered when we would see Puelles again after the embarassing loss to Dan Hooker, and here we are. Puelles pretty much only fights on the ground, and although he racked up five wins in a row in the UFC, Dan Hooker simply refused to go to the ground with him and used his striking to piece him up on the feet and Puelles was helpless.
Can Ziam do that? Absolutely I think he can. Ziam has had some clunkers of fights, but he's won two in a row and he has looked much better and focused in those two fights.
He has long legs and arms that will help him keep the distance from Puelles, and he showed good take down defense and clinch work in his last fight against Jai Herbert.
It will be interesting to see how Puelles looks in this fight as the UFC won't give him more fights if he does what he did against Dan Hooker.
I like Ziam in this fight, but I would be a bit cautious as I think we see some surprises from Puelles in his
gameplan.
Edgar Chairez -325 v Daniel Lacerda +260
I've done a writeup on this fight three times now, as the first fight got ruled a no contest and the second fight got cancelled, but the pick is still the same.
Chairez inside the distance when props come out. Lacerda is one of the worst fighters in the UFC rifht now and he's 0-4 with all losses coming by finish.
Chairez finished him in their first fight, but Lacerda got bailed out when the ruled the ref stopped the fight too early, which was a terrible ruling.
Lacerda has bad offense and even worst defense, and Chairez is better everywhere and he'll eventually get the finish. Wait til props come out and take Chairez inside the distance.
Mateusz Mendonca -142 v Jesus Aguilar +120
Mendonca lost his UFC debut to Javid Basharat (no shame in that), but the way he lost to Maness by getting ground and pounded in the first round was bad, and this is an important fight for him to win.
We really haven't seen him on offense in the UFC, but before he got to UFC he had a lot of early finishes with striking, but it certainly hasn't shown recently.
Another guy that is tough to read is Jesus Aguilar. He is 1-1 in the UFC as he's lost to Tatsuro Taira, one of the best up and comers in UFC, and then he knocked out Shannon Ross, one of the worst UFC fighters with probably the weakest chin.
Aguilar showed god cardio late in his Contender Series fight, but early in the fight when his opponent had energy, Aguilar got taken down and dominated.
It's not a great fight, but both guys are pretty equal so I'll stay away from a side and just pick this fight over 2.5 rounds at +120.
We're getting great odds because these guys have been involved in fast ending fights, but I believe those fights were opponent based and I don't see these guys finishing each other.
Raoni Barcelos -175 v Christian Quinonez +145
Both guys are coming off a loss, but both guys are in different stages of their careers as Barcelos is 10 years older than Quinonez.
Quinonez likes to strike with his long legs and arms, but last fight he showed bad striking defense and impatience and it cost him as Kang caught him on the chin as Quinonez rushed forward and eventually got the early finish.
Quinonez has solid power, but he has holes that someone like Barcelos can take advantage of. Barcelos has lost 4 out of 5 fights, but they've been against opponents much better and more experienced than Quinonez.
I think Barcelos avoids the big shot and exploits the openings Quinonez leaves en route to a decision win.
Chris Duncan -135 v Manuel Torres +114
This should be a strikers delight as both guys love the throw down. Torres has won his last 8 fights by first round KO so he strikes with bad intentions and his knockout of Motta in his last fight was scary how much power he had.
Duncan is more methodical and likes to draw out the fights as both his UFC fights have gone to decision so while both guys love striking, they are different styles and you have to pick which one you believe in more here.
I'll take Torres at plus money as I believe in his power, and it only takes one shot for him to put the lights out. I don't see a lot of upside in Duncan and we watched him get rocked on Contender Series agaisnt Charlie Campbell.
Maybe Duncan can extend the fight and wear Torres down, but we haven't seen anyone do that yet to Torres, and the plus money is a bonus.