UFC 300 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 300 predictions and picks for April 13th with Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill headli ning the main event in a light heavyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
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Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill: UFC 300 Main Event
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UFC 300 Predictions
Deiveson Figueiredo -305 v Cody Garbrandt +260
I'm all in on Figueiredo in this new weight division as the weight cuts got too hard for him, and he made his debut against the taller and bigger Rob Font, and while he started off a bit slow, he ended up dominating Font, and I think we see the same thing here.
Garbrandt has won two in a row, but barely beating Trevin Jones in unconvincing fashion wasn't great, and then he knocked out Brian Kelleher, but Kelleher is at the end of his career.
Garbrandt will be taller, but Fig will have a longer reach and I really think we see Fig having the advantage in wrestling and striking.
His clinch work looked good against Font, and I see it being effective against Garbrandt. I don't see where Garbrandt submits or KO's Figueiredo, and with the superior wrestling and striking game I like Fig to dominate here.
Bobby Green -180 v Jim Miller +150
A fight that has been years in the making as Jim Miller does the impossible and will compete at UFC 100, 200 and 300. Green is coming off of two quick KOs as he KO'd Dawson in 30 seconds in October, and then he got KO'd by Jalin Turner halfway through round one.
Green will certainly be using his jabs and footwork to keep Miller on the outside, and Miller will have to figure out how to get inside those jabs to force the wrestling or do damage to Green with kicks on the outside, but it will be a tough task for Miller.
I do have a little question about the chin of Bobby Green as he was knocked out by Dober in 2022 and then by Turner just a few months ago while Miller hasn't been finished in six years. I think Green is the rightful favorite, but the value is clearly on Miller as the dog.
Miller is 40 years old so Green should be faster, but Miller seems to have more weapons as he has better kicks, clinch and wrestling, and there's a chance that Green's chin is a bit soft going into this fight so I'll take a sprinkle on Miller to win this one.
Jessica Andrade -135 v Marina Rodriguez +114
Both fighters had lost a couple of fights in a row before getting wins in their last fight so this fight is very important to both fighters as one will come out of it with two wins in a row, and the other will have one win in their last four.
I believe this fight stays on the feet for the entire fight, and over three rounds I give the slight edge to Rodriguez. I think her volume ends up getting the edge as Andrade has power, but she can wait for her opponent to walk her down to set up counterpunches, and Rodriguez has accuracy and power on the feet to take advantage of it.
Rodriguez has the length advantage so I think the optics of her volume and accuracy with jabs sway the judges. I also like the knees of Rodriguez in close quarters so the pick is with the underdog, but don't be surprised if this is a razor-thin split decision.
Jalin Turner -238 v Renato Moicano +195
For entertainment purposes, I would like to see Moicano win so we get his post-fight
interview which is always entertaining, but this is going to be a tough fight for him. Moicano is coming off a great win against Dober where he used his ground game to tire out and get the decision win against Drew Dober, and he got the quick submission against Brad Riddell before that, But Turner is his toughest opponent by far.
Turner lost a close one to Gamrot, a year ago, and then lost a close one to Dan Hooker where Turner was so close to finishing Hooker, but he didn't finish him when he had the chance and his gas tank went away.
On the positive side, his striking looked great and he was seconds away from finishing Hooker, and his striking should be light years better than Moicano in this one.
Turner just has to stay out of the dangerous grappling and submission situations that Moicano will be constantly looking for, and while Moicano will have success at times with his takedowns and grappling I think Turner will be too much for him on the feet.
One area I think Moicano has an advantage is cardio. If Moicano can win one of the first two rounds, there's a chance he outworks Turner in the third so if you're looking at live lines and you see Turner start to tire out, Moicano could steal the round and win a close one. However, I think Turner will be too much with punches and kicks, he's the pick here.
Diego Lopes -142 v Sodiq Yusuff +120
Diego Lopes has looked great in his UFC career as he lost against Evloev, but he almost had Evloev in a ton of submissions and he more than held his own in his UFC debut. He then got two first-round wins against Tucker and Sabatini, one by submission and one by finish.
Along with having amazing hair, Lopes will be the taller, longer fighter with better submission and ground game, and I think he may have a more dynamic striking game.
Yusuff had a strange fight in his last fight where he looked amazing in round one against Barboza, and then faded and lost the next four rounds.
The good news for him is that this is only three rounds, but the bad news is he can't fall off with his energy like he did last time or Lopes will pounce and probably get the finish. I haven't been that impressed with Yusuff for a while.
His last couple of wins are against Don Shainis and Alex Caceres while he's lost to Barboza and Arnold Allen and I think the upside of Lopes is worth the -142 price tag.
Yusuff has never been finished in the UFC, but Lopes has the tools to change that on Saturday. I'll just play the moneyline, but I won't be shocked if Lopes gets a submission win here.
Kayla Harrison -500 v Holly Holm +340
The only way to play this is Holly Holm, and to get even better value you can take Holm by decision. To be honest, neither of these fighters has looked great recently as they're big names, but past their prime.
Harrison lost to Pacheco two fights ago, and then beat Aspen Ladd by decision in a fight where Harrison looked slow and not as dominating as usual.
Holm was finished by Silva in her last fight, but it was ruled a no-contest after a positive drug test by Silva, but make no mistake Holm looked bad. Harrison will want to get this fight to the ground where she can win the ground game, but Holm has probably been working non-stop on takedown defense.
On the feet, Holm will stick and move and keep the distance, and Harrison's bad striking will be on full display. At these odds, you can't lay it on Harrison so Holm will be the play here.
Aljamain Sterling -170 v Calvin Kattar +142
I think Kattar is in trouble in this one. He's lost three out of four fights, and he's coming off of a serious knee injury against an opponent who is going to force the wrestling and grappling on him.
Kattar should have the better striking, but Sterling isn't going to stand there and let him win a boxing match, especially after getting knocked out against O'Malley in his last UFC fight.
Interestingly, Sterling has done three grappling matches since the O'Malley fight so that may be an indication of what he's going to bring to the table in this fight. Kattar's last win was against Chikadze, and while he won by doing a lot of damage to Giga, Kattar was losing early before Giga slipped and fell and it went downhill from there.
I've been out on Kattar in his last two fights as we cashed on Emmett and Allen beating him, and I'll continue that trend as I think Sterling is going to be faster on the feet which will let him dictate the pace and where the fight takes place. Sterling will want this fight to get to the ground, and I think he gets it there en route to victory.