In our best Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's prediction based on the best college basketball odds, we expect the Broncos to play the Gaels tough in the West Coast Conference semifinal game.
Saint Mary's (24-7, 15-1 WCC) had the nation's longest winning streak (16 games) snapped in its loss in the regular season to Gonzaga, but the Gaels still won the West Coast Conference's regular-season league championship for the first time since 2012.
Santa Clara (19-12, 10-6 WCC) earned its spot in the conference tournament semifinal with a convincing 104-79 win over San Diego. It marked the third time that the Broncos scored 100-plus points this season, but just the second against a D-I opponent. Santa Clara has not reached the final of the West Coast Conference tournament since 2007.
Here is our best Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's prediction and our colle ge basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's prediction
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel
One negative surrounding Santa Clara entering this matchup is that the top four teams in the league were a combined 38-2 against the bottom five teams with the two losses coming from the Broncos. While Saint Mary's and Gonzaga took care of business, and were a combined 30-0 against the league's worst teams, San Francisco, who went 11-1 against teams not named Saint Mary's or Gonzaga, had its one loss come at the hands of Santa Clara. That proves the Broncos can be competitive against the league's top tier.
Santa Clara would have likely swept the Dons, but it lost by one point on the road in a game Adama Bal didn't even play in. Since Bal returned from a three-game absen ce, he's averaged 16 points per game over four games. His impact on the offense is vital, considering he ranks in the top 14 in the conference in the percentage of his team's possession and shot rate.
After getting blown out by 24 points at home by Saint Mary's, Santa Clara made the necessary adjustments and it was a much closer game (a five-point loss) in the rematch at Moraga. The Broncos shot 42.1% from beyond the arc and scored 1.18 points per possession against the normally impenetrable Gaels defense. We like the fact that they have a game under their belts already in this tournament, while Saint Mary's has been waiting around for nine days.
For as dominant as Saint Mary's has been from a wins and losses perspective in the early rounds of this tournament, it has covered the spread in just one of its last six conference tournament games since 2020, and we prefer to be on the contrarian side with Santa Clara -110 to cover at our best sports betting sites.
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Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara +9.5 | Santa Clara +9.5 | OFF | Santa Clara +9.5 | Santa Clara +9.5 |
| -110 | -110 | OFF | -110 | -110 |
This is as sharp a line as it gets, as all of our top best sports betting sites are in unison with a spread of +9.5 at the standard -110 juice. Saint Mary's is likely to receive much of the betting action, as one of the two dominant teams in the conference over much of the last decade, so it would not be surprising to see this spread get to double digits. Santa Clara's -110 odds imply a 52.38% chance it will cover against Saint Mary's, according to our odds calculator.
Saint Mary's has had nine days off to stew over its last loss against Gonzaga, but Gaels backers may not have to worry about a rust factor, as the team is 7-4 ATS when playing on four or more days' rest this season. However, we are siding with a Santa Clara squad that has won 20-plus games in three consecutive seasons for the first time since 1983-85.
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Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's odds
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's odds analysis
As of Sunday night, DraftKings was the only sportsbook with reported line movement on this point spread. It lowered from an opening number of -10 to -9.5 within an hour on Sunday afternoon. Saint Mary's has covered 16 of its 30 games this s eason, while Santa Clara is an even more profitable 18-11-2 ATS.
Like the point spread, our top sports betting apps are in unison with the O/U of 134.5. However, at least with the total there is a slight difference in odds, as FanDuel has the Over at -115, while all other books offer the standard -110 on either side of the total. Early wagers have clearly supported the Under, as Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 all lowered from opening numbers of 135.5.
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's game info
- When: Monday, March 11 at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, Nev.
- How to watch: ESPN
Santa Clara-Saint Mary's prediction made Sunday at 8:04 p.m. ET.
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