The Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the James Madison Dukes in the Sun Belt Final as we make our top Arkansas State-James Madison prediction based on the best college basketball odds.
Freddy Hicks' buzzer-beating jumper in the semifinals helped propel the Red Wolves to their 67-65 victory over the top-seeded Appalachian State Mountaineers. The second-seeded Dukes were also caught in a tight game on Sunday against Texas State, but they were able to escape with a 73-68 win.
The Dukes won 77-73 in Jonesboro when they last met the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Who gets the edge on Monday?
To complement our college basketball best bets for Monday and Santa Clara-Saint Mary's prediction, here is our best Arkansas State-James Madison prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Arkansas State vs. James Madison prediction
Best odds: -110 via Caesars
The Dukes and Red Wolves boast two of the nation's highest-scoring teams. The Dukes average 84.2 points per game while the Red Wolves are at 79.0. While the Dukes are decent defensively and give up 69.1 points per game, the Red Wolves are coughing up 76.7 per contest.
Those statistics may make this bet seem like a five-star play, but a few elements need to be considered. First, this is each team's third game in as many days. Second, this is a championship contest with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line. The moment may prove to be too significant for at least one team early, which could cause that squad's shooting to tank.
But even with those potential problems, the Over is still the right play. The Dukes have scored 80-plus points in seven of their last eight games. They haven't notched fewer than 70 in a game since Jan. 20 against the Marshall Thundering Herd.
The Red Wolves have been a little more inconsistent with their scoring this season, but they're also the underdogs in this contest. Expect the Dukes to dictate the pace of play while this game potentially reaches 160 points.
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Arkansas State vs. James best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| Over 153.5 | Over 153.5 | Over 153.5 | Over 153 | Over 153.5 |
| -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
There isn't much of a range among our best sports betting sites, with four of the five listing the total at 153.5, and Caesars still offering 153. DraftKings is featuring the best price, but there isn't enough value to take -105 over -110 for a half point. The percentage difference in implied odds is barely over 1%.
Keep an eye on this total, as we expect it to continue rising as tipoff approaches. We'd take the Over as high as 156 before it becomes too hard to trust both teams to shoot well on tired legs.
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Arkansas State vs. James odds
Arkansas State vs. James odds analysis
The Dukes opened as 6.5-point favorites, but that spread has been dropping to as low as five at a few of our best sportsbooks. However, the public still loves the favorites in this game, with 72% of bettors backing the Dukes against the spread. It's unlikely this line will drop much lower than where it is now if that public support continues.
The total for this contest opened at 153.5, and it's either stayed there or dropped to 153 at all of our best sports betting apps. Currently, 63% of bettors are backing the O ver. The Dukes boast the 14th-highest scoring team in the NCAA and the Red Wolves rank 41st, so this number should continue to climb as tip-off approaches.
Arkansas State vs. James game info
- When: Monday, March 11 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, Fla.
- How to watch: ESPN
Arkansas State-James Madison prediction made 3/11/2024 at 10:32 a.m. ET
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