The Boston Red Sox (+145) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-175) on Thursday, March 28, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s game with 60.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 away games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.70 Units / 90% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.10 Units / 210% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sam Haggerty has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the RBIs Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Dominic Canzone has hit the Runs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Runs Under in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 away games (+3.20 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 away games (+2.43 Units / 76% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games at home (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 54% (266/497) on sliders in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (86/485) versus Brayan Bello in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (109/173) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 60% (138/230) against Brayan Bello in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo induced opposing hitters to ground into just 2 double plays in 108 opportunities (2%) in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
Luis Castillo threw fastballs 68% of the time (984/1,445) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo threw fastballs 62% of the time (1,996/3,207) in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo threw fastballs 61% of the time (639/1,043) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.