The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-135) on Thursday, March 28, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s game with 53.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Under in his last away game (+1.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alika Williams has hit the Runs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+1.90 Units / 190% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Over in his last game at home (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
- JT Chargois has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last game at home (+1.80 Units / 180% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.2 MPH on inside pitches since the 2022 season (377 balls in play) — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Mitch Keller had a strikeout rate of 54% (61/113) in PAs ending on fastballs away in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
128 of Mitch Keller’s 210 strikeouts (61%) came on fastballs in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 91st Percentile.
Mitch Keller elevated 41% of his pitches (259/627) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
40% of Jesus Luzardo’s called strikeouts were elevated in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 50% (181/361) against Jesus Luzardo on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo located his fastball inside 43% of the time (623/1,449) in the 2023 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .377 (23 GB hits out of 61 GBs) against Jesus Luzardo with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .241 — second Percentile.