Today’s Pitcher Prop Picks For July 31
WagerTalk MLB player prop Expert Andy Lang provides his MLB pitcher prop picks and predictions for Monday, July 31 with odds provided by DraftKings. Get his best pitcher prop picks before first pitch!
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Pitcher Prop Prediction 1: Charlie Morton Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Charlie Morton is having a solid season with a 10-8 record, 3.57 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 120 strikeouts across 113.1 innings of work.
However, he has struggled in his last two outings allowing a combined 8 earned runs, 12 hits and 8 walks across only 9 innings of work. The Los Angeles Angels enter Atlanta sporting the 8th best wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.
On top of that, they recently acquired former Rockies sluggers CJ Cron and Randal Grichuk who are projected to bat at 4th & 5th in the Halos lineup. Morton has struggled with longevity, falling short of a full six innings in 7 of his last 9 outings and 12 of 20 on the season (60% success rate to the under).
There will be optimal hitting conditions tonight in the ATL with temperatures closing in on 90 degrees and wind blowing out at close to 10 MPH.
Sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Mickey Moniak, Cron and Grichuk will be licking their chops tonight in Atlanta and I don’t see Morton lasting a full six innings.
Pitcher Prop Prediction 2: Kyle Gibson Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135)
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Gibson has held his own in 2023 with a 9-6 record, 4.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 103 strikeouts across 122 innings of work.
He has been a workhorse for the O’s, pitching a full six innings in 6 of his last 9 games and 13 of 22 games on the season (60% success rate). Gibson has also been a road warrior as he has recorded 18+ outs in his last five games and 9 of 13 games on the season (69% success rate).
This includes a start against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 19th where he allowed only one run across seven full innings of what turned out to be a 6-2 victory. While the Jays are a top-10 team offensively against right-handed pitching, they have slid closer to the middle of the pack during the last 30 days.
The majority of Blue Jay sluggers have struggled against Gibson including Bo Bichette (1-9), George Springer (3-19) and Matt Chapman (2-18).
The Orioles needed to utilize eight different bullpen arms to cover 11.1 innings during the last two games with one of those pitchers going twice, so they need an extended outing out of Gibson north of the border tonight in Toronto. Take his outs over 17.5 with reasonable juice.
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