The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Wednesday, April 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Pirates are 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 9-8 ATS.
Pirates vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 1-0, 4.11 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 1-1, 3.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+6.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- DJ Stewart has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Butto has hit the Strikeouts Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 78% ROI)
- Luis Severino has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Adrian Houser has hit the Strikeouts Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.15 Units / 48% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-6 against the Run Line (+4.7 Units / 18.11% ROI).
- 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 25.51% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 6.31% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -14.9% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 9-8 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 13.75% ROI).
- 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 1.23% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -9.51% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.26% ROI
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .571 (133 Total Bases / 233 ABs) on breaking pitches since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have not swung and missed (0/16) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (17/133) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 58% of the time (84/145) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.