The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Sloan Park to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Sunday, March 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Mesa.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Padres vs Cubs Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Padres are 7-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 8-7 ATS.
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.90 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -4.47% ROI).
- 7-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -21.46% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -3.7% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -2.97% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 8-7 against the Run Line (+0.8 Units / 4.11% ROI).
- 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 4.63% ROI
- 4-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -45.56% ROI
- 11-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 37.18% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (52/100) against Justin Steele on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (1,513/2,136) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 34% (26/77) versus Justin Steele with runners in scoring position last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.