Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker shares his top Week 2 survivor picks based on the latest NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
The NFL never fails, only a handful of Week 1 favorites do year in, year out.
Plenty of Survivor contests were tossed upside down with multiple Week 1 upsets, and plenty of poolies are either looking to buy back in or rejig their strategy for next year.
The Week 2 slate features just a handful of chalky favorites, and I'm banking on a Buffalo Bills bounce back with my NFL Week 2 Survivor picks.
Here are our NFL Week 2 survivor picks; the perfect complement to all of our NFL Week 2 predictions for the 16-game slate.
Survivor picks NFL Week 2: Rankings
NFL Week 2 odds via&n bsp;bet365 as of Thursday, Sept. 14, at 8 a.m. ET.
| Rank | Team | Opponent | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills | vs. Raiders | -9.5 | -450 | 81.8% |
| 2 | 49ers | at Rams | -8 | -370 | 78.7% |
| 3 | Cowboys | vs. Jets | -9.5 | -450 | 81.8% |
| 4 | Eagles | vs. Vikings | -6 | -260 | 72.7% |
| 5 | Giants | at Cardinals | -5.5 | -235 | 70.1% |
| 6 | Lions | vs. Seahawks | -5 | -235 | 70.1% |
| 7 | Dolphins | at Patriots | -2.5 | -140 | 58.3% |
| 8 | Broncos | vs. Commanders | -3.5 | -192 | 65.8% |
| 9 | Saints | at Panthers | -3 | -165 | 62.3% |
| 10 | Buccaneers | vs. Bears | -2.5 | -145 | 59.2% |
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Survivor picks NFL Week 2: Rankings
Everything went wrong for the New York Giants in their Sunday Night Football clash with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, and while I don't peg the G-Men as a playoff team, this is a huge step down in class.
The Arizona Cardinals are sporting the shortest worst record odds in the NFL, and this spread has moved in the New York direction as of Thursday morning.
One of the Survivor cannons I failed to mention last week was avoiding Thursday Night Football games, and it's one of the only worries I have about flying with the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2.
Otherwise, Philly sharply checks all the boxes, while the Minnesota Vikings are scribbling outside the lines in crayon. Still, Minny has the offensive chops to put points on the board, and I just prefer the following trio of teams more.
The Dallas Cowboys are one of the largest favorites in the NFL Week 2 odds, and they'll face New York Jets No. 2 quarterback Zach Wilson after he ranked 35th in adjusted EPA per play among the 37 QBs that played at least 200 snaps last season. Add Wilson's 54.5% completion percentage and 39.5% success rate, and Gang Green is in trouble.
If I didn't have sincere respect for the New York defense, Big D would be my No. 1 pick this week.
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay showed he still had some magic beans in his satchel against the Seattle Seahawks, but the San Francisco 49ers are an entirely different giant, Jack.
San Fran shellacked the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road, and I see too many mismatches on both sides of the football favoring the 49ers in this matchup. Another quick checkpoint is where the two teams stand in their projected win totals:
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 12.5 (Over: +110, Under: -130) | 11.5 (O: -122, U: +100) | 12.5 (O: +110, U: -130) | 11.5 (O: -150, U: +125) | 12.5 (O: +110, U: -140) |
| Rams | 6.5 (O: -130, U: +110) | 6.5 (O: -122, U: +100) | 6.5 (O: -130, U: +110) | 6.5 (O: -130, U: +110) | 6.5 (O: -130, U: +105) |
Make no mistake, this is a mismatch.
I don't expect Bills quarterback Josh Allen to turn the ball over four times or attempt 41 passes against the Las Vegas Raiders. Instead, I'm anticipating Buffalo having a more balanced offense by packing more punch on the ground and being more efficient through the air.
The Raiders allowed the ninth-highest rushing success rate to the offensively offensive Denver Broncos, and while it's already baked into the NFL odds, traveling east for a 1 p.m. ET game is a tough schedule spot. Add the rollicking Bills Mafia to the equation, and this uneven tilt has Buffalo W written all over it.
Survivor picks NFL Week 2: Fade
Hit the rewind button, and the Detroit Lions were a -3 home favorite in lookahead markets before Week 1.
Did enough change for this point spread to nearly double?
Your mileage may vary, but I'm giving Seattle the benefit of doubt and steering clear of Detroit in Survivor pools. There are enough soft matchups to take advantage of, and avoiding this game entirely will allow us to have a longer look at a longer tale of the tape to better evaluate both the Seahawks and Lions.
Circa Survivor picks NFL Week 2
Here are the Week 1 picks and results from the Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest. Make sure to check back for the Week 1 picks once they're released by the sportsbook.
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