Quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens headline Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker's Week 1 Survivor picks based on the latest NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Survivor pools are brilliant because they bridge the cavernous gap between simplicity and difficulty.
Heading into Week 1 it should be easy as can be to pick a single weekly winner, and yet entire pools are blown up before Halloween candy even hits the shelf.
There are endless strategies, too. Don't look ahead, avoid divisional matchups, never take a road team, yada yada yada …
And, yes, I just yada yada'd through the creeds of Survivor.
If you advance far enough there will come a time when you'll have to make an uncomfortable pick, but with 32 teams and 16 games at you r disposal in Week 1, there's no need to overthink it – especially with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Houston Texans.
Read on for our survivor picks to accompany all of your NFL Week 1 predictions.
NFL Week 1 survivor picks rankings
NFL Week 1 odds via bet365 as of Thursday, Sept. 7, at 6 a.m. ET.
| Rank | Team | Opponent | Spread | Moneyline | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens | vs. Texans | -10 | -500 | 83.3% |
| 2 | Seahawks | vs. Rams | -5 | -250 | 71.4% |
| 3 | Commanders | vs. Cardinals | -7 | -315 | 75.9% |
| 4 | Vikings | vs. Buccaneers | -6 | -260 | 72.2% |
| 5 | Jaguars | at Colts | -5 | -225 | 69.2% |
| 6 | Chiefs | vs. Lions | -4.5 | -220 | 68.8% |
| 7 | Eagles | at Patriots | -4 | -180 | 64.3% |
| 8 | Cowboys | at Giants | -3.5 | -165 | 62.3% |
| 9 | Broncos | vs. Raiders | -3.5 | -192 | 65.8% |
| 10 | 49ers | at Steelers | -2.5 | -135 | 57.4 |
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NFL Week 1 survivor picks rankings
With Trevor Lawrence entering his third season and leading a well-rounded offensive attack, I give the Jacksonville Jaguars a huge edge at quarterback in this one. The Indianapolis Colts have handed the keys of the franchise over to rookie signal caller Anthony Richardson, and I'm anticipating the talented-but-raw Richardson to have too many peaks and valleys Sunday to lead the Colts to a Week 1 win.
We all know the 13-win Minnesota Vikings were frauds in 2022. However, they still boast a dangerous offensive attack, and I expect the defense to be better under incoming coordinator Brian Flores this year. The offseason moves of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers brass signal the tea m is aiming to be competitive, but winning in Minny has proven challenging. The Vikings are 13-4 at U.S. Bank Stadium over the past two years.
I don't have a lot of confidence in the Washington Commanders, but this is a relatively balanced Week 1 slate, and the Arizona Cardinals are touchdown-sized road underdogs. Additionally, Joshua Dobbs completed just 58.8% of his passes for a measly 6.0 yards per attempt across his two 2022 starts for the Tennessee Titans. Washington has the better roster on both sides of the ball and has an extra flare of promise with Sam Howell starting behind center.
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There just aren't many avenues to victory for the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. The defense lacks talent beyond defensive lineman Aaron Donald, and the offense will be without No. 1 weapon Cooper Kupp (hamstring). The Seattle Seahawks are balanced on both sides of the ball, and there's room for Geno Smith to regress as a passer Sunday – and throughout the season – without it tanking an offense flush with playmakers.
The Baltimore Ravens are the only double-digit favorite on the docket, and I am rolling with them this week. Sure, this year's edition might not feature a top-tier pass rush or th e shut-down-corner chops of other elite defenses, but I'm happy riding alongside head coach John Harbaugh at home against a rookie quarterback in his first NFL start.
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