Anything can happen in the NFL, but especially during season openers, so here's what teams we're targeting as our NFL upset picks for Week 1 based on the top NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
There are always surprising results in Week 1, and 2022 was no exception when the Pittsburgh Steelers won in Cincinnati, the Chicago Bears upset the San Francisco 49ers, and the New York Giants shocked the Tennessee Titans. All of those teams were touchdown-plus underdogs.
I'm always looking to back teams that may be flying a bit under the radar early in the season, and fade squads that could be overrated. With that in mind, here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 1 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL Week 1 predictions, NFL Week 1 survivor picks, and NFL player props for Week 1.
NFL upset picks: Week 1
- Buccaneers (+220 via FanDuel) vs. Vikings ???
- Titans (+150 via bet365) vs. Saints ????
- Steelers (+115 via bet365) vs. 49ers ???
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NFL upset predictions
Not much is expected from the Buccaneers in 2023 with Baker Mayfield taking over the offense from the retired Tom Brady. However, there are some great weapons for Mayfield to work with in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and he could do some damage against a Vikings secondary that's adjusting to new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. On the other side of the ball, Tampa's defense should be improved in 2023 with the return of top pass rusher Shaquil Barrett from injury.
No team was more fortunate in 2022 than the Vikings, who made history while going a perfect 11-0 during single-possession games. That luck won't last forever. I'm willing to bet it turns during Week 1, so let's pounce on the generous +220 moneyline price FanDuel is offering.
The betting market always seems to disrespect Mike Vrabel's Titans, even though they've finished with a losing record just once in the last seven campaigns. That trend is continuing during the 2023 season opener, as Tennessee is a field-goal underdog to a Saints team that went 7-10 in 2022 and is playing without Alvin Kamara.
Tennessee went 7-10 last year as well, but that record is misleading because the Titans were regularly without quarterback Ryan Tannehill and many other starters. Tennessee may return to its overachieving ways in 2023 now that the team is back to full strength and has upgraded its receiving corps after signing DeAndre Hopkins.
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Pittsburgh thrives in the home underdog role. The team has gone 7-1-2 against the spread in its last 10 contests during that situation, winning outright in six of its last eight. The Steelers were also one of the NFL's hottest clubs to end 2022 while winning and covering in each of their final four games.
They built on that momentum during the preseason. That's when young quarterback Kenny Pickett led touchdown drives during each of the five series he played.
San Francisco has historica lly started slow under head coach Kyle Shanahan, going 1-5 ATS in its last six season openers and losing four of those games outright. Quarterback Brock Purdy has yet to lose a game when he's played every offensive snap. But this will be his first regular-season action since tearing his UCL during the 2023 playoffs, and the Steelers have been studying him all offseason. Meanwhile, top defender Nick Bosa might not be able to play his usual allotment of snaps on defense after ending his contract holdout a few days ago.
NFL upset picks made 09/07/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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