NFL Division Preview: AFC North
The AFC North was one of two divisions in the NFL last season to have three teams with a winning record, and it looks to have a formidable quartet of squads once again. The Cincinnati Bengals (+140) might be the best team in football if Joe Burrow stays healthy, while the Cleveland Browns (+425) and Pittsburgh Steelers (+450) have high ceilings if Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett play up to or exceed expectations.
With Lamar Jackson signed, sealed, and delivered, the Baltimore Ravens (+240), who have won at least 10 games in four of the five seasons with Jackson, look poised for another season as a strong playoff contender. There are no easy games within the division, as this is arguably the deepest division in the league for the 2023 season.
Watson is one of the main storylines with a retooled wide receiver group and the rust of a 700-day layoff in the rearview mirror, but the Browns still have to overcome the reigning two-time division champion Bengals, who might have been an ill-advised out-of-bounds push on Patrick Mahomes away from being the reigning two-time AFC champs. They also have to play well enough to unseat a Ravens team that has finished lower than second just once since 2015 and a rival that has won 32 of the 41 head-to-head games over the last 20 years.
Are we looking at more of the same in the AFC North with the Bengals and Ravens atop the mountain or will this season provide some surprises?
Baltimore Ravens
With the highest-paid player in NFL history back in the fold, the Baltimore Ravens are looking for their fifth playoff appearance in the last six seasons. The five-year, $265 million contract that Lamar Jackson negotiated for himself solved the quarterback question for the Ravens, but the onus is now on him to answer some questions, specifically about his health. If he can do that, the Ravens can absolutely challenge the Bengals and make it back to the postseason.
Offense
Jackson has only been able to play 12 games each of the last two seasons for the Baltimore offense, and he hasn’t been able to replicate his 2019 MVP season or his strong follow-up in 2020. Jackson has a 33/20 TD/INT ratio over the last two seasons, and while he’s rushed for 1,531 yards, he only has five rushing touchdowns. He had seven in each of 2019 and 2020 alone.
Optimism is high with the Ravens, though, because new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is back after three impressive seasons with the University of Georgia. They also revamped the wide receiver position with first-round pick Zay Flowers and reliable veterans Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor in free agency. After gaining just 5.5 yards per play last season, this offense definitely needed a spark.
A healthy J.K. Dobbins would also provide a spark, as he had 5.7 yards per carry over 92 attempts. The new-look WR corps should also give Mark Andrews a few more open targets. He was third in receiving yards among tight ends on a team-high 113 targets. This was a top-10 offense in EPA/play through 11 weeks prior to Jackson’s season-ending injury in Week 12 against the Broncos, so there is a foundation to build on with more talented personnel.
Defense
The Ravens only allowed 5.3 yards per play, but they finished 14th in EPA/play, 22nd in Dropback EPA, and 21st in Dropback Success Rate. They effectively stuffed the run and allowed just 3.9 yards per carry, but there were some coverage breakdowns. The advanced stats weren’t as kind to this defense as the more traditional metrics.
Baltimore allowed the seventh-highest completion percentage against, despite finishing in the top 10 in sacks with 48. The Ravens worked in enough good outcomes to cover for some of their pass defense failings, as they were third in red-zone touchdown percentage and fourth in third-down conversion rate against. They’ll run it back with a similar group this year minus Calais Campbell and Chuck Clark.
Outlook
Every team in the AFC North is chasing Cincinnati, and every AFC team may very well be chasing the Bengals, but the Ravens are a well-run, well-coached organization with 45 wins in the 61 games started by Jackson. They look to be the division’s second-best team solidly, and that should be good enough for a playoff berth in the expanded postseason. Their win total, however, seems fair at 9.5.
Recommendation: A slight lean to Over 9.5, as it depends on Jackson’s health.
Cincinnati Bengals
The reigning two-time AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals have one goal this season: to win the Super Bowl. After having a top-10 scoring defense to go with a top-10 scoring offense in 2022, a late push on Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game may have been the difference between losing in heartbreaking fashion and winning the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy. With a stacked roster, the Bengals are the AFC North favorites, and some think this might be the best team in the NFL.
Offense
Last season marked the first time that the Bengals won consecutive division titles since 1981-82 and a third looks likely with Joe Burrow and a tremendous group of wide receivers. Surprisingly, the Bengals only managed 5.5 yards per play last season, but they were fifth in EPA/play and Dropback EPA, along with finishing third in Dropback Success Rate. Cincinnati’s receivers weren’t as explosive, averaging 10.8 yards per catch after averaging 12.6 in 2022, but the Bengals did shave 10 sacks off of Burrow’s total to lessen the impact of negative plays.
Along with their overall success, the Bengals were at their best when it mattered most, posting the third-best third-down conversion rate at 48.1% behind the Bills and Chiefs and the fifth-best red-zone touchdown percentage at 64.9%.