It is common to overreact to just one week's results, but we have sifted through the odds to comprise our NFL Best Bets for Week 2 based on the best NFL odds.
Week 1 of the NFL season saw road teams go 12-4 against the spread, while the Under also cashed in 12 of the 16 games. And as oddsmakers adjust to new rosters and coaching staffs around the league, the opening week saw eight “upsets,” with three of the AFC's top teams (Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals) all losing.
Here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 2 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Week 2
- Brandon Aiyuk Over 57.5 receiving yards vs. Rams (-110 via bet365) ????
- Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+108 via BetRivers) ????
- Travis Kelce first touchdown scorer vs. Jaguars (+650 via FanDuel) ????
- Falcons ML vs. Packers (+100 via Caesars) ????
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Week 2 NFL schedule and odds
(odds via Caesars)
- Green Bay Packers (+1) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys (-9)
- Miami Dolphins (-3) vs. New England Patriots
- Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL predictions for Week 2
San Francisco wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a season opener with eight receptions for a career-high 129 yards and two touchdowns. Since Brock Purdy took over as the team's quarterback last season, Aiyuk has led the team in targets (39), receptions (30), and yards (446).
Aiyuk has exceeded this projected total in three of his last five against the Los Angeles Rams, with receiving totals of 81, 37, 26, 69, and 107 yards in the previous five meetings. However, Aiyuk was lined up across one of the best cover cornerbacks in the league, Jalen Ramsey, for many of those snaps, and Ramsey is no longer with the team.
There is always a chance the 49ers race out to a big lead and lean on the running game with Christian McCaffrey and Co. However, this is a confident four -star play as we expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to be aware of Purdy's six-game streak with two or more passing touchdowns, and he needs one more to tie Billy Volek in 2003-04 with seven for the most consecutive starts with multiple passing touchdowns to begin a career since 1950.
All sportsbooks are in unison with the Over/Under of 57.5 yards, but bet365 is the only shop not juiced to the Over, as Aiyuk's odds to exceed the total are as high as -119 at Caesars.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa passed for 466 yards in Week 1, the fourth-most in a season opener in NFL history. In the process, he became the second quarterback in Dolphins history with 400-plus passing yards in multiple games.
Tagovailoa completed 20 of 35 passes for 334 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception against man coverage last week while compiling a 98 QBR outside the pocket. The 334 yards versus man coverage were the fourth-most in a single game over the previous five seasons, per ESPN Analytics/NFL Next Gen. However, this is the ultimate fade spot coming off a massive performance against a head coach who knows a thing or two about taking a team's best weapon away.
Bill Belichick's New England Patriots defense held the Philadelphia Eagles to one offensive touchdown, which is tied for the fewest in any Jalen Hurts start. Philadelphia's 251 total yards were its fewest since 2021, and at one point, it had four consecutive three-and-outs in the first half. This is a four-star play, as the Patriots forced Hurts into a 7.1 QBR when pressured in Week 1 (ranked 22nd among all quarterbacks), and the Eagles ended the week ranked 20th in offensive efficiency.
Several sportsbooks have plus-money odds to back the Under for this prop, but BetRivers is the only one offering better than a price of +105.
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The Kansas City Chiefs offense missed tight end Travis Kelce dearly last week, and with him back at practice and looking like a go for Sunday, we expect Patrick Mahomes to get him involved early and often.
Mahomes was 10-for-22 for 135 yards, one TD, and one INT when targeting wide receivers in Week 1. And he missed Kelce's ability to operate in the middle of the field, going 13-for-23 for 148 yards and a touchdown against zone coverage. Mahomes was off-target on 19% of his passes, and his receivers dropped 10% of his attempts.
Since 2016, Kelce ranks second in receptions (675), second in receiving yards (8,607), and fourth in receiving touchdowns (59) among all players, so we are bypassing his steeper -145 anytime touchdown odds and expect him to be the first player to cross the goal line in what should be a high-sco ring affair.
FanDuel offers a very generous price for this wager, as all other major sportsbooks are at +500 odds or shorter, with Caesars being the lowest at +450.
The Green Bay Packers' start to the Jordan Love era ended much the same way as many of the games with Aaron Rodgers under center did, with a win over the Chicago Bears. We are not discrediting Love's impressive performance, who threw for a career-high 245 yards while leading the Packers to a tie for their third-most points (40) in a season opener in franchise history. However, the Atlanta Falcons' unique offensive attack is a matchup nightmare for the Green Bay defense.
Atlanta is eventually going to need more out of quarterback Desmond Ridder, who ranked 31st among starting quarterbacks in Week 1 in attempts (18), 28th in yards (115), and 21st in Total QBR (29). Ridder also had just one pass attempt over 12 air yards, and his 3.3 air yards per attempt was the worst in Week 1. However, Atlanta's rushing attack is built to expose a Packers defense that ranked No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA and EPA. Chicago could not employ its running game to full effect last week after falling behind by 18 points midway through the third quarter, but we expect the Falcons to remain close enough to have that be their biggest advantage in this matchup of 1-0 teams.
Caesars is the only shop offering plus-money odds to back the Falcons, as all others are at -105 or higher.
NFL best bets made 9/15/2023 at 7:11 a.m. ET.
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