Despite a 14-game NBA slate on Tuesday night (where we cashed Jrue Holiday over 4.5 rebounds in the 3rd quarter), the NBA is blessing us with another 8-game slate to wind down the season. The crowning jewel of tonight is the Timberwolves vs Nuggets in battle for the #1 seed in the West, while the Mavericks take on the Heat at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. We also have round 2 of Suns vs Clippers, except the venue flipped to L os Angeles. You can find out our'NBA picks for each of those games, but for now, let's take a look at my favorite NBA player prop bet for tonight.'
Mike Conley (MIN) over 10.5 points (-115)
This is a very odd handicap at first glance, but hopefully I do a good job explaining it: Mike Conley owns Jamal Murray. Dating back to last year’s NBA playoffs, I noticed Conley played significantly more aggressively against Murray than any other matchup I saw from him throughout the season. He was aggressive in attacking the basket, creating his own shot and getting out in transition as it related to Jamal Murray.
In the last postseason against Denver, Conley hit this mark in 3 of 5 games. I assumed it was playoff-related until I looked at his play this season against Denver, where he is 3/3 against this line and averaging 17 ppg. Compared to any other team in the league this season, Conley against the Nuggets is averaging his most ppg, his second-best field-goal percentage and third-best three-pointer percentage. On back-to-backs, he’s also averaging 12.6 ppg and hit this in 13 of 23 games since the all-star break. This is a potential Western Conference Finals preview and I'm riding with Conley to continue his above-average play against the Nuggets. 1.5u