Big opportunities have opened up toward the end of the NBA season, and we have you covered for an exciting NBA slate with our NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday based on the best NBA odds.
After a monster 14-game slate on Tuesday, things slow down for Wednesday's eight-gamer in the Association. As usual, we've got four player props primed and ready to go.
Cam Thomas gets a phenomenal matchup when the Brooklyn Nets take on the defensively-slack Toronto Raptors. With Giannis Antetokounmpo likely out against the Orlando Magic, Damian Lillard should take on an expanded role for the Milwaukee Bucks on offense.
Chet Holmgren and the Oklahoma City Thunder will look for a win against the shorthanded San Antonio Spurs, and we'll cap our props with Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets goinng head-to-head with the Minnesota Timberwolves in a Western Conference clas h of the titans.
Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday's NBA best bets
- Cam Thomas Over 24.5 points vs. Raptors (-120 via DraftKings) ????
- Damian Lillard Over 29.5 points vs. Magic (+145 via bet365) ???
- Chet Holmgren Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Spurs (-120 via bet365) ????
- Nikola Jokic Over 40.5 points + rebounds vs. Timberwolves (-110 via DraftKings) ????
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Wednesday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers | Spread: Cavaliers -18.5 | Total: 213
- Mavericks vs. Heat | Spread: Mavericks -5 | Total: 215.5
- Hornets vs. Hawks | Spread: Hawks -10.5 | Total: 219.5
- Raptors vs. Nets | Spread: Nets -10 | Total: 222
- Magic vs. Bucks | Spread: Magic -1 | Total: 216
- Spurs vs. Thunder | Spread: Thunder -15 | Total: 226.5
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Spread: Nuggets -6 | Total: 212.5
- Suns vs. Clippers | Spread: Suns -3 | Total: 227
Wednesday's NBA player props
Since the All-Star break, no team has surrendered more points per game than Toronto, which has given up a whopping 121.4 in that span. Over his last 15 games, Thomas has averaged 26.5 points and scored at least 25 in nine. That's good to hit the Over on this number in 60% of those 15 games. Based on his recent performances, we'd expect these odds to be -150, so we're getting a clear discount at DraftKings.
Thomas has hit the Over in 26 of 63 games on the season, averaging 23.3 points at home compared to 21.3 on the road. We'll take the Over in this juicy matchup.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a non-contact injury in Tuesday's win over Boston. While his MRI revealed no damage to his Achilles, it's safe to assume he'll sit out Wednesday for the second half of Milwaukee's back-to-back set.
Lillard has played in six games with Giannis on the sidelines and scored at least 30 points in five of them. Dame has only 20 games of 30 points to his credit this season, so the plus-money odds are understandable. Given his success without Antetokounmpo, we can bet on another strong performance and take the Over on this alternate line. A $10 wager on this prop yields a return of $14.50, making it a profitable endeavor.
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Holmgren has been in a bit of a slump over the last three weeks, but he's started to turn things around over his last five games. In that span, the rookie has averaged 16.5 points and 8.2 boards and hit the Over on this prop twice. On the season, Holmgren has hit the Over in 34 of 79 games, or just 43%. The implied probability of these odds is 54.6%, so why are we betting this one?
Holmgren has hit the Over in his last two games against the Spurs, posting strong numbers against fellow Rookie of the Year contender Victor Wembanyama. Wemby is questionable tonight and could sit for the second half of San Antonio's back-to-back set. That's even better news for Holmgren, who's playing in an already favorable matchup and won't have to face a Defensive Player of the Year contender in Wembanyama. We're taking the Over and the odds, which are justifiably a little juiced in this situation.
Jokic has hit the Over in five of his last six, including a 32-point, 10-rebound game against Minnesota on March 29. Jokic has averaged 30.7 points and 12 rebounds in three matchups with the Wolves this season, hitting the over twice. Joker has averaged 40.5 points + rebounds since the All-Star break, hitting the Over in 13 of 23 appearances.
Denver is jockeying fo r the top seed in the West with Oklahoma City and Minnesota, so Joker will surely be at his best in this pivotal matchup. The implied probability of our -110 odds is 52.4%, but Jokic has hit the Over in 56.5% of games since the break. That makes this a value play.
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NBA best bets made 04/10/2024 at 9:45 a.m. ET
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