We're focusing on a pair of star rookies for Friday's eight-game slate, and our NBA player props and best bets are based on the best NBA odds.
What better way to close out the work week than with an eight-game slate in the Association?
Day 2 of March Madness will be in full swing, but that doesn't mean we can't look to the world of professional hoops for four profitable player props.
Star rookie Chet Holmgren gets one of the best matchups for a big man on Friday, and we're taking the Over on his combo prop when the Oklahoma City Thunder face the Toronto Raptors.
Fellow star rookie Victor Wembanyama has been a menace as a shot-blocker, and he'll look to keep rolling in that department when the San Antonio Spurs play the Memphis Grizzlies.
Meanwhile, Jarrett Allen was tremendous against the Minnesota Timberwolves last week, and we're betting on that happening again when the Cleveland Cavaliers face the Western Conference powerhouse on the road on Friday.
We'll cap off the night by taking a plus-money wager on Anthony Davis' rebounds as the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Philadelphia 76ers.
Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Friday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's NBA best bets
- Chet Holmgren Over 29.5 PRA vs. Raptors (-115 via DraftKings) ????
- Victor Wembanyama Over 4.5 blocks vs. Grizzlies (+100 via FanDuel) ????
- Jarrett Allen Over 30.5 points + rebounds vs. Timberwolves (-105 via DraftKings) ???
- Anthony Davis Over 14.5 rebounds vs. 76ers (+110 via bet365) ???
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Friday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Celtics vs. Pistons | Spread: Celtics -13 | Total: 223
- Thunder vs. Raptors | Spread: Thunder -15 | Total: 229
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs | Spread: Spurs -6 | Total: 217
- Pelicans vs. Heat | Spread: Heat -3.5 | Total: 20 5.5
- Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves | Spread: Timberwolves -5.5 | Total: 209
- Pacers vs. Warriors | Spread: Warriors -5 | Total: 238
- Clippers vs. Trail Blazers | Spread: Clippers -13 | Total: 217.5
- 76ers vs. Lakers | Spread: Lakers -8.5 | Total: 224
Friday's NBA player props
Holmgren is fresh off the best game of his career after he posted 35 points, 14 rebounds, two steals, and three blocks against the Utah Jazz. According to StatMuse, Holmgren is the first rookie to reach those numbers in a game since Shaquille O'Neal.
Holmgren has averaged 29.3 points + rebounds + assists over his last seven games and hit the Over in four. On the season, he's averaged 27.8 PRA on the road compared to 27.6 at home, and he posted 31 against the Raptors when the two teams met on Feb. 4.
Since the All-Star break, Toronto has allowed the most rebounds and the fourth-most points. In the Raptors' last four games, Domantas Sabonis posted 40 PRA, Paolo Banchero posted 40 and 34, and Jalen Duren racked up a whopping 47 against them.
We're taking the Over with an implied probability of 53.5%. Based on his recent performance and the highly favorable matchup for Holmgren, these are worthwhile odds.
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Wembanyama leads the league in blocks per game at 3.5, and he comfortably leads in games with five or more. Through his first 61 games as a pro, Wemby has blocked at least five shots 20 times, more than the next two players on the list combined (Brook Lopez has nine, Walker Kessler has eight).
Only four other players in NBA history have recorded five or more blocks in 20-plus games as a rookie: Shaquille O'Neal, Alonzo Mourning, David Robinson, and Manute Bol.
His blocks line is set at 4.5 for even money across our best sports betting sites, so you can make this wager at whichever you prefer.
Even money gives us an implied probability of 50%, but Wemby has hit the Over in eight of 12 since the All-Star break, or 66.7% of those contests. He's averaged 4.8 blocks in that span.
In two matchups with Memphis this season, the star rookie has blocked four and eight shots. Memphis allows the second-most blocks this season at 6.4, and over the last three, opponents have swatted 7.7 shots against the Grizzlies.
This is a strong matchup for a player who's been tremendous as a shot-blocker all season and even more incredible since the break. This is an easy Over.
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Betting on Allen has been profitable lately, so we're going back to the well. The Cavs will once again be without Evan Mobley, and both Dean Wade and Max Strus will be sidelined, as well. That means Allen should thrive in the paint as a scorer and rebounder. He scored a career-high 33 points against the Timberwolves on March 8, hitting the Over on this prop with his offense alone.
Over his last nine games, Allen has averaged 19.7 points and 12.7 rebounds, good for 32.4 points + rebounds. He's hit the Over in five of those, including two on the road. Allen has hit this mark in better than a third of his games this season, doing so in 22 of 64 appearances, including 11 on the road.
Minnesota allows the sixth-fewest rebounds on the season overall, but the team is 15th at home. The Wolves allow the fourth-fewest points in the paint overall, but over the last three, they've allowed the 12th-most.
Allen has no competition for rebounds or scoring down low among his teammates, so we're taking the Over.
With odds of -105 at DraftKings, we've got an implied probability of 51.2%, but he's hit the Over in 55.5% of his last nine, making this a discount.
Davis is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game this season, but he's pulled down 13.1 in 13 games since the All-Star break. That number jumps to 13.8 if we don't count the four rebounds he secured in only 12 minutes against Golden State last Saturday. Davis has secured at least 15 rebounds four times since the break, but two of those have come in his last three outings, not counting the Warriors contest.
Philadelphia has allowed the eighth-most rebounds to opponents overall, but they've allowed the fourth-most since the All-Star break. Without Joel Embiid in the lineup, Philadelphia's frontcourt has struggled to stop opposing rebounders, and Davis should be able to take advantage. He's grabbed at least 15 rebounds in 17 games this season, including eight on the road.
His line is set at 14.5 across our best sports betting apps, and the longest odds can be found at bet365, which is where we'll make this wager.
The odds give us an implied probability of 47.6%, but Davis has been more productive than usual on the glass, and the matchup is phenomenal. We're taking the Over.
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NBA best bets made Friday at 6:50 a.m. ET
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