We reach the final day of the NBA season before official playoff action as #8 seeds are on the line in today's NBA Play-In Tournament games. Despite just 2 games to work with on the hardwood board, we have found betting value for you to snag before the lines get stale. This season, I am 50-34 for a +14.1% ROI on the season w ith NBA player props in this article series. You can find out our NBA picks for each of tonight’s matchups, but for now, let’s get into my 3 best NBA player prop bets for Friday, April 19.
Haywood Highsmith (MIA) Over 1.5 threes made (+176)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
Although the Miami Heat have suspect rotations due to their depth that could make a prop like this volatile, this is simply an egregious price given the situation. With superstar Jimmy Butler already ruled out, the elite isolation defense of Haywood Highsmith will be an absolute necessity in this elimination game to handle the offensive firepower brought by Coby White and DeMar DeRozan. With Terry Rozier also ruled out for this game, Miami doesn't have much of a choice but to give Highsmith high-leverage minutes for his potential to be an impact player on both ends of the floor.
This season, in games where Rozier and Butler are not playing but Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are both starting, Highsmith has averaged 1.53 threes made on 3.33 attempts per 20 minutes overall and is a significantly better shooter overall at home. Now, he faces a Chicago Bulls defense that will willingly leave him open. Over their last 15 games, the Bulls have allowed the 4th-most catch-and-shoot threes made on the highest such shot frequency in the NBA. In this matchup, we project 3.50 attempts and 1.40 attempts; this line should barely be plus-money, not the price we are getting. It is playable down to +130.