MLB schedule today has 15 games
We’re back to a normal card in Major League Baseball with 15 games on the betting board for Tuesday. Yesterday’s six-game slate was a nice break, as we’ll have double-digit games on the daily through the All-Star Break, which is rapidly approaching. The league will be on hiatus two weeks from today for the four-day Midsummer Classic and associated festivities.
This is another round of series in which we have seven interleague matchups, as the more balanced schedule stands out on a day like today. That means four games in the NL and four in the AL before looking at some teams that don’t normally play, including the continuation of the three interleague series that started last night.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 27 card (odds from DraftKings):
San Diego Padres (-190, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s fair to wonder whether or not the Padres deserve to be this big of a favorite with how they’re playing. San Diego just can’t seem to string together the winning streak that seems like it has been on the horizon on a weekly basis. Their poor performance with RISP and bad record in one-run games has prevented them from getting back into the thick of things in the playoff race.
After stopping home for a short series against the Nats, they’re back on the road to take on the Pirates. Yu Darvish and Rich Hill are the slated starters in this one. As bad as things look for the Padres right now, Pittsburgh is 15-33 since going 19-9 in April and now sits seven games under .500. Hill hasn’t helped much of late, as he has a 4.34 ERA with a 5.44 xERA and a 4.35 FIP in 83 innings of work. Since May 23, however, he has a 5.05 ERA in six starts, allowing at least four runs in four of them.
He’s allowed a 44.9% Hard Hit% in that span and has actually been above that number in three of his last four starts. I’m sure some scouts will be in attendance today as teams look for pitching help over the next six weeks. It’s a tricky assignment for Hill, as the Padres are seventh in wOBA against lefties and tied for fifth in wRC+ at 115.
Darvish comes in as a pretty noticeable positive regression candidate with a 4.84 ERA, 3.61 xERA, and a 3.85 FIP in 80 innings pitched. He’s struck out well over a batter per inning, but has been plagued by a 65.9% LOB%. That has been especially true lately, as he has allowed 21 runs on 29 hits in his last 26 innings. He has a 48.8% LOB% in that span with a .356 BABIP against. He has a 7.27 ERA with a 3.53 FIP, so we’ll see if the positive regression comes today. I have no interest in betting this one, though.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-145, 9)
Here’s another line that, at least on the surface, looks lofty for one of the league’s biggest underachievers. The Mets are laying a hefty number with David Peterson on the bump against the Brewers and Julio Teheran. As somebody who has already lost money on Teheran a couple of times, I’m not eager to fade him here, but I don’t think I really want to back him either.
Teheran has a 1.53 ERA with a 3.29 xERA and a 3.92 FIP in 35.1 innings pitched. His low 17.6% K% doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, especially when lumped in with a .211 BABIP against and a 90.3% LOB%. He has managed to only allow six earned runs in six starts and never more than two in a start. Maybe he keeps this up, but there are a lot of signs pointing to how hard that is.
That said, Peterson has gotten recalled from Triple-A for this one. He has an 8.08 ERA with a 5.16 xERA and a 4.78 FIP in his 39 MLB innings this season. He’s got a ton of strikeouts, but also way too many homers and a .404 BABIP against. This will be his first MLB start since May 15. He wasn’t exactly lighting it up in Triple-A either. He went down and threw eight shutout innings on May 21, but has a 6.00 ERA with a 5.21 FIP in five starts since.
The thing about this game is that the Brewers are 30th in wOBA and 29th in wRC+ against lefties with the highest K% in baseball, so this is about as good of a matchup as Peterson can get against an MLB team. Milwaukee’s .350 SLG against lefties is the lowest in baseball by 17 points. Between that and Teheran’s regression signs, I’m moving on.
Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 8.5) at Chicago Cubs
It is Jameson Taillon’s turn in the Cubs rotation, but there are some whispers that the Cubs could maybe go with Drew Smyly, who is already on extra rest from the off days surrounding the London game. The line seems to imply Taillon, who has a 6.71 ERA with a 5.58 xERA and a 5.18 FIP in his 53.2 innings pitched this season. It’s been a rough year for Taillon, who has a .331 BABIP against and a 59.2% LOB%. He’s given up at least four runs in seven of his 12 starts, even though he’s allowed just a 38.2% Hard Hit%.
The Cubs could give him some run support, though, as Chicago is sixth in wOBA at .337 against lefties going into this matchup with Ranger Suarez. If not for a 25% K%, the Cubbies could be doing even more damage against southpaws.
Suarez has a 23% K% and a 3.50 ERA with a 4.33 xERA and a 3.20 FIP over his 43.2 innings of work. After a bit of a slow start to the season with 12 runs allowed in his first three starts (including one against the Cubs), Suarez has allowed five earned runs in his last five starts, including six excellent innings against the Braves last time out.
His high xERA is a byproduct of a 40.2% Hard Hit% and his early-season K%, which has jumped significantly with 22 K in his last 19 innings pitched against the Dodgers, D-Backs, and Braves, so three pretty strong lineups and two that hit lefties very well.
The total is only 8.5 here with a night game and some winds blowing in from LF, although the wind is supposed to calm as the sun sets. I gave some thought to the underdog Cubs, but Taillon hasn’t been sharp and Suarez is locked in a nice groove right now.
This game is also threatened by bad air quality in Chicago from Canadian wildfires, so it may not even get played.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-275, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
We’ve got two overwhelming favorites on the board today and this is one of them, as the Dodgers lay a huge number at Coors Field. The Rockies are 30th in wRC+ against lefties and 29th in wOBA as they draw southpaw Clayton Kershaw. Colorado will counter with Connor Seabold.
Kershaw had a tough month of May with the passing of his mother and a couple of rough starts, but he seems to have righted the ship here in June, allowing just four earned runs on 20 hits with 28 strikeouts in 27 innings pitched. The only runs he has allowed have come via solo homers, so he has a 100% LOB% to go with a .239 BABIP. I will say that his BABIP and LOB% aren’t really in lockstep with his 49.3% Hard Hit% and a 9.9% Barrel%. He’s gotten fortunate to not allow more hits than he has, as a HH% of that magnitude certainly suggests some command concerns.
But, we’re asking a Rockies lineup to take advantage and that’s a big ask. Seabold, who has a 5.88 ERA with a 4.76 xERA and a 5.59 FIP, was skipped last time through the rotation with some arm pain. He allowed nine runs on nine hits to the Braves on June 17. Prior to that, he had allowed four earned runs over 17.1 innings in starts against the D-Backs, Giants, and Red Sox (at Fenway). The Braves just absolutely pummeled him, as they’ve done to lots of lefties this season.
Gave a little thought to the over here with Kershaw’s recent Hard Hit% spike, but it’s still the Rockies.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-195, 9.5)
The Tigers pulled off a big upset last night and knocked Andrew Heaney around in the 7-2 win, even though Matthew Boyd left hurt in the first inning. Boyd had a fastball take off on him with two outs in the first and left with what was announced as “left elbow discomfort”, so that’s never good. Then, reliever Will Vest only pitched one inning and left with right knee pain. So, the Tigers had to cobble it together with Mason Englert and Tyler Alexander to get the win.
Why does that matter? Because Matt Manning returns today for his first MLB start since April 11. Manning suffered a fractured foot and was moved to the 60-day IL to get the team a roster spot, but he’s back now after three rehab starts. He allowed an unearned run over 8.2 innings, but did walk eight guys, including five in his last start, with nine strikeouts. Manning topped out at four innings, so it looks like it will be another tough day for the bullpen.
As it is, the Tigers pen was used extensively on Saturday and Sunday, especially on Sunday, when six relievers were used. So, this is a bit of a tough setup for them today. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Boyd put on the IL right away to create a bullpen spot for another reliever.
Anyway, Manning is a guy that I do like long-term. His two MLB starts this season were mediocre, as he allowed six runs on 12 hits in 11.2 innings of work and gave up four home runs with a 52.6% Hard Hit% and six barrels. Last season, Manning had a 3.43 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and a 3.78 FIP over 63 innings pitched.
The matchup against the Rangers is a tough assignment upon return, but the offense might give him some help against Martin Perez. Perez has a 4.38 ERA with a 4.99 xERA and a 4.97 FIP in his 84.1 innings pitched. He’s seen a huge regression in his K% and a big spike in his HR/FB%, which has nearly doubled this season. His K% is down 5.3% from last season.
Perez has allowed seven runs in under four innings twice and then also allowed six runs once, which, ironically, came in a start at Detroit. He’s actually allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his 15 starts, but when he’s been bad, he’s been really bad. Here’s the odd part, though. Perez has a 1.71 ERA in 31.2 innings at home with a .260 wOBA against. Compare that to a 5.98 ERA in 52.2 innings away from home with a .382 wOBA against. This start comes at home, so that’s enough for me to stay away, as there’s something about Arlington that makes him a different pitcher this season. He’s given up 12 of his 13 homers on the road and 21 of his 28 walks.
Cleveland Guardians (-140, 9) at Kansas City Royals
The MLB debut of Gavin Williams didn’t really go according to plan, as he allowed four runs on four hits over 5.2 innings with only four strikeouts against three walks. It wasn’t all his fault, as he had a 25% Hard Hit% and didn’t allow a barrel against the A’s, but he also only had a 7.1% SwStr% after racking up 81 strikeouts in 60.1 innings in the minor leagues. He’ll get a second crack today against the Royals.
Cleveland gets to take swings against Brady Singer, an activity that has had guys tripping over each other to get to the bat rack and stand in the box. Singer has a 6.34 ERA with a 5.76 xERA and a 4.50 FIP in his 76.2 innings pitched. He has a 54.7% Hard Hit% against and a 10.1% Barrel%. He has allowed at least four runs in nine of his 15 starts, but he’s had a few more palatable outings recently, including 5.2 shutout innings against the Rockies on June 4 and a decent start at home two outings ago against the Angels.
The question is whether or not Cleveland’s paltry offense can take advantage of what looks like a good matchup. Sure, the Guardians have swung it better in June with a .326 wOBA and a .280 batting average with a 108 wRC+, but their contact quality remains pathetic with a 32.8% Hard Hit% and the lowest Barrel% in baseball. Any offensive success that they have feels more like luck than anything else. Their 32.8% HH% is 1.5% lower than anybody else. They just don’t drive the ball at all.
They should have a sizable bullpen advantage if Williams and Singer cancel out or if they have a lead, but I can’t trust them here.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-190, 8.5)
We’ve got a good one today between Michael Kopech and Shohei Ohtani after the Angels walked it off on a wild pitch last night. The 1st 5 Under 4 wasn’t much of a sweat at all, as Dylan Cease and Reid Detmers traded a bunch of zeros and a bunch of strikeouts. Both guys had 10 punchouts, with Cease over six and Detmers over seven. Solo homers were the lone blemishes for each guy.
Today has a chance to set up pretty similarly. My concerns about Ohtani and his one-start velocity disappearance went away after he shoved against the Dodgers last time out with 12 strikeouts in seven innings. He also did well to keep the Rangers at bay on June 15, even if he only struck out three in that outing. For the season, he has a 3.13 ERA with a 3.94 FIP and a 32.6% K% with just a .179 BA against. He does have a 10.3% BB%, but the White Sox don’t draw walks, so that isn’t much of a worry tonight.
Ohtani’s Hard Hit% is just 33.7%, so not only has he racked up a ton of punchies, but he’s also done a really good job of limiting hard contact. That being said, over his last four starts, he’s allowed eight of his 17 barrels for the season. Three of those four starts came against AL West teams, though, and they at least have a bit better of a chance from seeing him more frequently.
Kopech has a 2.44 ERA with a 3.51 FIP in his last eight starts. He’s only allowed four homers, which is what he allowed in his May 7 start before this recent stretch began. He’s struck out 58 batters for a 31.9% K%. In his last two starts, he’s had a bit of a walk rate issue and has an 11% BB% in this span, but he’s only allowed a 27.3% Hard Hit%. He had the walks against the Mariners and Rangers, but only allowed five hard-hit balls in 25 batted ball events.
Kopech’s recent home run avoidance and soft contact are encouraging. Just about everything is encouraging about Ohtani in this matchup against a White Sox lineup that ranks 28th in wOBA against righties at .292 with an 84 wRC+, a 23% K%, and a 6.4% BB%. I’ll run it back again with the 1st 5 Under, though this one is at 4.5 and -110 per DraftKings.
Pick: 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-110)
New York Yankees (-135, 8) at Oakland Athletics
Jhony Brito and Paul Blackburn fire up this series at the Coliseum. Brito returned for his first start in a month and threw 5.2 shutout innings against the Mariners with three strikeouts against just one walk. He’s got a 4.89 ERA with a 5.18 FIP and a 5.40 xERA on the season in 46 innings pitched. He gave up seven runs in two-thirds of an inning to the Twins back on April 13, which is still hanging around his neck with the small sample size of his season. Take that start away and he has a 3.57 ERA.
With his bad peripherals, his FIP would still be a lot higher than that, but he hasn’t pitched nearly as bad as most of the metrics would indicate. He just doesn’t work very deep into games and doesn’t get many chances for his numbers to improve. Also, he only has a 16.7% K% with a 9.6% BB%, so the advanced metrics are never going to be a fan. He’s only allowed a 36.8% Hard Hit%, so he’s induced mostly weak contact, aside from the 16 barrels he has allowed from being behind in too many counts.
It was a bit surprising to see his good start against the Mariners since he allowed six runs in back-to-back Triple-A starts prior to his recall. That’s why I can’t trust him here, even though I do think some of his numbers are a touch misleading. Also, the Yankees have the worst lineup by wOBA in the month of June. They are 11 points lower than the Pirates, who are 29th.
New York’s dependence on Aaron Judge has never been more evident. Since he’s still out until late July, somebody will have to step up. Blackburn is hoping that nobody does, as he comes in with a 4.21 ERA, 3.26 xERA, and a 2.99 FIP in his five starts this season. He returned on May 29 and has allowed 12 earned runs on 31 hits in 25.2 innings. His 30/7 K/BB ratio is why FIP and some of the other advanced metrics are so high on his performance thus far. He’s had some bad luck with a .382 BABIP, especially in light of a 29.5% Hard Hit% and just four barrels.
Nothing from me on this one, but let’s see if Blackburn can have some better fortunes with the soft contact.
Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles (-150, 8.5)
To the interleague slate we go, as Andrew Abbott and Tyler Wells keep this series rolling at Oriole Park. Abbott gave up the first runs of his MLB career last time out with three solo homers at the hands of the Rockies. He also struck out 10 batters over six innings after only having 12 strikeouts in his first 17.2 innings as a big leaguer.
Early success for Abbott isn’t a big surprise at all. In 10 minor league starts this season, he has a 2.50 ERA with 90 strikeouts in just 54 innings pitched. With a 44.3% Hard Hit% and a 9.8% Barrel%, he didn’t deserve to have three straight scoreless starts, but the 10 strikeouts against the Rockies surely made everything look a lot better, even with the three homers. He still has a 1.14 ERA with a 4.19 FIP, a .190 BABIP and a 100% LOB% since all the runs were solo shots, but Abbott having success is not that shocking.
The O’s counter with Wells, who has a 3.22 ERA with a 3.54 xERA and a 4.63 FIP. Wells has allowed 18 homers in 86.2 innings pitched, but everything else in his profile looks quite good. He’s got 88 strikeouts against just 19 walks and has only allowed 40 non-homer hits as a fly ball guy who generally induces weaker contact. His .191 BABIP and 85.2% LOB% are both ripe for regression, though, so it’s really tough to back Wells in most spots.
But, he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in five straight starts and only gets hurt by solo homers. It’s a really strange profile and a rather unique one to the league as a whole. It’s also a hard one to handicap because it follows a lot of the regression signs that I look for, but context is so important and the context here is that he’s good except for one thing.