MLB schedule today has 15 games
Another 5-5-5 slate comes your way on Tuesday, as the July 4 holiday means a pretty hefty dose of day games. The first game actually starts at 11:05 a.m. ET in D.C., so that’s a bright and early 8 a.m. for us out here in West Coast time. I worked ahead on the card, but certainly didn’t plan to have this out in time for that one.
But, I am committed to getting this out as early as possible so we can all enjoy Independence Day. So, let’s get to the games.
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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the July 4 card (odds from DraftKings):
Cincinnati Reds (-115, 10) at Washington Nationals
How bad is Patrick Corbin? Well, he was an underdog this morning to Brett Kennedy, who was signed to pro ball in the Padres in 2015 and has 26.2 innings at the MLB level, which came back in 2018 with San Diego. He allowed 20 runs on 36 hits with an 18/12 K/BB ratio over six starts. He is a great story of perseverance making his way back to the bigs after toiling in the minors every year since, but I’m not really sure what to expect from him here.
In 43.2 innings at Triple-A, he had a 3.71 ERA with a 4.33 FIP across eight starts. He is also coming off of his worst start of the season with six runs allowed on eight hits in 5.1 innings. So, I’ll be rooting for him for the story, but have absolutely no play here.
Corbin comes in with a 4.84 ERA, 6.20 xERA, and a 4.87 FIP in his 96.2 innings this season. He was just on the bereavement list after firing seven shutout innings against the Mariners with nine strikeouts, but he didn’t miss a start while on the list. In his six starts prior to his seven shutout innings, he allowed 26 runs on 47 hits in 33.1 innings with seven homers and just a 23/19 K/BB ratio.
I’m glad this is an early game so I don’t have to think about it more than I already did.
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (-180, 8.5)
Another early one features the Cardinals and Marlins, as Miami looks to build off of last night’s 5-4 win. It was the 20th one-run win of the season for Miami, who is having a magical season in that regard. They may not need to win by one run here if Adam Wainwright is the same pitcher that he’s been throughout the season and if Jesus Luzardo follows suit.
Wainwright has allowed 13 runs on 17 hits in his last 4.2 innings pitched, as he’s been battered around by the Cubs in London and the Astros in Busch Stadium. He’s got a 7.45 ERA with a 5.46 FIP on the season in 48.1 innings pitched. He’s only struck out 25 of 234 batters and has given up eight homers. There’s been a little bit of bad luck with a .375 BABIP with a 34.4% Hard Hit%, but there is no bad luck in the elevated home run rate with 21 barrels allowed and a 10.9% Barrel%. Waino has a 5.5% SwStr% on the season with one start over 10%. He’s had five starts under 5%, including his most recent outing.
This is as bad as it gets for the soon-to-be 42-year-old, as he is expected to retire after the season and may not even make it through the year in the rotation. His fastball velo never really lit up the gun as a starter, but it’s down to 86.3 mph now and he’s just out there throwing glorified batting practice.
Luzardo slayed some road demons last time out with a tremendous start in Boston. He’s got a 3.53 ERA with a 3.52 xERA and a 3.29 FIP in his 97 innings pitched with a nice 28.4% K% and a terrific 6.1% BB%. Luzardo has been decidedly better at home with a 2.65 ERA and a .259 wOBA against over 54.1 innings compared to a 4.64 ERA with a .353 wOBA against in 42.2 innings on the road. His home K% is 30.5% and his HR/FB% is just 6.8% compared to 25.9% and 16.7% on the road, respectively.
This should be a good matchup and a good spot for him against the Cardinals. With limited lead time and a pretty big favorite number, no play from me, but I’d be pretty shocked if St. Louis won.
New York Mets (-120, 9.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks
One of the weak links for the Diamondbacks is on the mound here in the person of Zach Davies. On the whole, the D-Backs could use some pitching upgrades and one of them would be to get Davies out of the rotation. Despite a good start last time out against the Rays, Davies has a 6.54 ERA with a 4.44 xERA and a 4.06 FIP. His 54% LOB% has done a number on his ERA, but there still isn’t a lot to like in the profile.
His 6.4% HR/FB% is about half of his career average in over 1,000 innings, so I’d question the sustainability of that. His 10.3% BB% is a lot to work around with a 17% K% and a .282 batting average against with a .333 BABIP. The seven shutout innings against Tampa Bay came out of nowhere, as he had allowed 21 runs over his previous 10.2 innings of work. In those three starts, he allowed 28 hard-hit balls and a Hard Hit% over 60%. In the start against the Rays, he only allowed four hard-hit balls.
Maybe pitching coach Brent Strom found a magic fix. He basically abandoned the changeup with the second-lowest usage of the season and went with more fastballs and cutters. I’m surprised he had success with that pitch mix, but maybe there was a mechanical adjustment as well. Either way, he’s the opposite of trustworthy.
At least you mostly know what you are going to get with Kodai Senga, who has a 3.53 ERA with a 3.86 xERA and a 4.01 FIP in 81.2 innings of work. Senga has struck out 28.5% of opposing batters, but also walked 13% of them. He’s only allowed a .208 batting average despite a 40.8% Hard Hit%, so I’d be worried about that going up, but he does wind up with a lot of two-strike counts where batters need to protect the zone.
Senga has allowed four or more runs six times in 15 starts, but he’s had more good outings than bad. Against a very aggressive Diamondbacks team that may not take advantage of his erratic nature, I’m curious to see how this start goes. Arizona is 19th in BB% and likes to swing early in the count.
I’m interested in the Mets, who did have an off day to travel, which was really important because David Robertson had worked three times in four days, six relievers were used on Sunday, and several guys would have been questionable for Monday. Now, at least those guys have had a bit of a breather. Arizona’s bullpen has some major question marks of its own.
Corbin Carroll will probably be back and his inclusion in the lineup would likely improve the price on the Mets, but I do think New York is a good investment today. I wanted to get the article published for those doing stuff on the holiday, but the D-Backs lineup will probably come out shortly and if Carroll is in it, the market should react accordingly and those taking the Mets will get a better line.
Shop around as it is because DK once again has the highest line in the market here. Shop around with every bet, but especially sides with their 20-cent lines.
Pick: Mets -120
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 9.5)
Crafty vets face off here in a matchup between Kyle Hendricks and Wade Miley. This will be the eighth start for Hendricks, who has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. He has a 2.81 ERA with a 3.65 FIP in 41.2 innings of work and has only allowed two homers out of 166 batters faced. He also only has a 13.3% K%, so he hasn’t missed a lot of bats, but he has a .200 BA against and a .221 BABIP.
He’s doing what he does best and that is limit hard contact with a 33.8% Hard Hit% against. He hasn’t had a start with an average exit velo higher than 88.8 mph. This is vintage Hendricks, where is ERA is close to a run lower than his FIP and he is outpitching his xERA. His previous xERAs were certainly better, but the really anemic K% is holding him back in that department.
Miley has a 3.02 ERA with a 4.81 xERA and a 4.54 FIP in his 56.2 innings. Like Hendricks, a low K% is holding him back, but he’s only allowed seven homers on the season and has a .231 BABIP against with a 33% Hard Hit% and a low average exit velo. Apparently there’s still a place in baseball for command artists that don’t overpower guys.
The Cubs are down to 11th in wOBA against lefties, as they’ve struggled recently. Since June 1, the Cubs are just 23rd in wOBA at .293 after being a top-10 offense in that split throughout most of April and May. My initial thought was that this line presented some value on the Cubs, but with that ghastly June performance against lefties and what happened yesterday, it’s hard to like much about this team.
It sure feels like a decision may have to be made on David Ross and that there are simply too many problem areas with this squad. Not that I’m high on Milwaukee either, but maybe this line is about right.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers (-245, 9.5)
It will be Luis Ortiz and Emmet Sheehan here as the Pirates and Dodgers continue their series. This will be the fourth start for Sheehan, who struck out 41.7% of the batters he faced in Double-A, but only has a 19% K% at the MLB level to this point. He had a 19.7% SwStr% in Double-A, but has an 8.7% SwStr% against the best of the best. He’s only allowed five runs on 10 hits in 17 innings, but I continue to have worries about his high rate of fastballs.
He’s faced the Rockies (at Coors), Astros, and Giants and had success, so he’s faced a pretty comparable slate of teams to what he’ll see with the Pirates on Tuesday night. He’s allowed a decent rate of hard contact in his last two starts and sits at 42.6% for the season with five barrels allowed. With a 65% fastball rate, I would assume hard contact keeps being part of the equation. He threw a lot of sliders at the right-handed-heavy Astros and preferred to go with a more even pitch mix against the Giants between the slider and changeup.
The Pirates recently got Bryan Reynolds back from injury, so they’ll have four or five lefties to throw at Sheehan, who has done identically well against hitters from both sides of the plate. But, that will dictate his pitch usage from start to start, especially with a fairly shallow arsenal.
While I have concerns about Sheehan, they pale in comparison to the ones I have about Ortiz in this matchup. He has a 4.11 ERA with a 6.78 xERA and a 5.67 FIP in 50.1 innings of work. He’s only struck out 13.7% of opposing batters with an 11% BB%. He’s also allowed eight homers and a ton of hard contact with a 47.1% Hard Hit% and an 11.8% Barrel%. This looks like a really, really rough matchup against the Dodgers for Ortiz.
He’s allowed a .414 wOBA against with the bases empty, a .303 with men on, and a .293 with RISP. Lefties own a .384/.481/.616 slash with a .467 wOBA in 104 plate appearances, while righties have a .273 wOBA in 32 PA. The Dodgers only have five lefties to send at Ortiz, but the righties include Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, who are both having excellent seasons.
Sheehan has actually allowed a 45.2% Hard Hit% on his fastball. It currently has a .168 wOBA, but a .300 xwOBA. The question here is whether or not the Pirates can attack it and get some positive outcomes. I'm not sure Pittsburgh contributes. I do lean Dodgers Over 5.5 Runs at -115, but I'm not sure I'll officially lock it in. It won't be an article play, but they should do well against Ortiz.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-120, 9)
It has been a major struggle recently for Kyle Gibson, who comes into this start with a 4.66 ERA with a 4.88 xERA and a 3.89 FIP. Gibson has allowed 11 runs on 16 hits in his last 7.2 innings with both starts coming at home. He’s a guy that sort of lives on the edge in most of his starts since he’s a low-strikeout guy that has allowed a lot of hard contact of late. Since May 3, Gibson has allowed a 47% Hard Hit% with a .323 BABIP. In that span, he has a 5.05 ERA.
Let’s narrow it down even more. Gibson has a 55% Hard Hit% against in his last five starts with an 11.3% Barrel%. He’s allowed an average exit velo of 92.2 mph in that span over 80 batted ball events. While FIP likes him because he has only allowed two homers and has 27 K in 25 innings, he’s just not locating very well right now and his last two starts have been the culmination of his shoddy command.
Will the Yankees, who have been among the worst offenses in baseball since Aaron Judge went out last month, take advantage? That’s kind of the burning question in all of their games.
I wrote a lot about Clarke Schmidt going into his most recent start. Schmidt has a 4.37 ERA with a 4.29 xERA and a 4.20 FIP in his 82.1 innings pitched. Schmidt has simplified his game, as he’s not racking up nearly as many strikeouts, but he’s doing a way better job of avoiding hard contact. In his last eight starts over 42.1 innings, he has a 2.55 ERA with a 3.74 FIP. He only has 31 strikeouts and hasn’t had more than four in a start since May 31, but he has only allowed three homers and seven total barrels. His Hard Hit% is up to 40% after giving up some loud contact last time out, so we’ll see if he can locate better here.
One of the starts in that span did come against Baltimore and the Orioles had the highest exit velo in the sample at 93.3 mph, but only scored one run on five hits.
Tricky handicap here and I don’t like anything with the early start, but it is a spot where I think some of Schmidt’s pitch-to-contact nature may catch up with him. Rain is also a major threat for this one, as they may not even get the game in depending on how and when the storms pop.
Texas Rangers (-120, 10.5) at Boston Red Sox
Dane Dunning takes the hill today at Fenway Park hoping to continue to keep the Regression Monster at bay. The 28-year-old right-hander has a 2.69 ERA with a 4.60 xERA and a 3.80 FIP in his 80.1 innings of work. He’s been a fixture in the rotation since May 5 and has a 3.00 ERA with a 3.99 FIP in those 60 innings pitched, as he only has 40 strikeouts, but did just rack up 10 over 8.2 magnificent innings against the Tigers.
That was Dunning’s longest start of the season by far and his second-longest start was the seven innings he threw against the Yankees in the start prior. This was the first time he had touched 100 pitches and, while he’s getting an extra day of rest relative to the traditional schedule for MLB pitchers, I do worry a bit about him here. He’s also allowed 17 barrels with a 40.8% Hard Hit% in this starting stretch, so regression is lurking for sure. He only has a .279 BABIP against and has allowed just five homers, with three of them in one start.
Boston will counter with a Johnny Wholestaff setup, as Brennan Bernardino makes his first career start. He’s got a 2.49 ERA with a 4.09 xERA and a 3.37 FIP in 23 relief appearances covering 25.1 innings. I would presume Chris Murphy is the bulk guy today, since he last threw 46 pitches on Wednesday. He has allowed two runs on six hits over 10 innings with a 12/3 K/BB ratio. Justin Garza is also on the roster and can be a long man, but he’s allowed 11 runs on 17 hits in 16 innings.
Maybe it’ll be a combo of both. I don’t know, but this is an early game with limited lead time. I’m just hoping I don’t miss out on Dunning’s regression, but a warm day game at Fenway Park could be the spot. It will be gross in Boston today with humidity approaching 100% and rain and storms in the forecast.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-195, 9)
Another early start in the AL features the Royals and Twins, as Kenta Maeda looks to pitch his team to another victory and maybe another game up in the standings on the Guardians, who have to contend with the Braves once again today. It will be Zack Greinke for the visiting Royals.
Maeda has only made six starts this season after coming back from Tommy John surgery. He missed about two months due to triceps soreness and has looked better in his return from that than he looked in April. Maeda has allowed two runs on eight hits over 10 innings with 12 strikeouts and four walks in outings against the Tigers and Braves. He really threaded the needle against Atlanta with a 94.2 mph average exit velo against and a 53.3% Hard Hit%.
In two starts since coming back, Maeda has SwStr% marks of 13.3% and 17.1% while pumping in a bunch of first-pitch strikes. His velo is up a little bit as well, though not back to where it was earlier in his career or even in 2021.
You’d have had to see it to believe it with Greinke’s line last time out against Cleveland. He lowered his ERA to 5.15 with two runs allowed over six innings, but he gave up 11 hits and didn’t strike out any of the 28 batters that he faced. It marked the first time since May 30 that he didn’t allow a home run and his two walks were the most he had issued since April 27. The 11 hits were a season high, but to illustrate the importance of sequencing, he allowed nine hits and seven runs the start prior on June 23 and four runs on eight hits the start prior to that.
Greinke’s profile is not one worth betting into, as basically any good starts feel like pure luck with where his stuff is at right now. But, I don’t want to trust Maeda at all either, so this is an easy pass to me.
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers (-170, 8.5)
Today is a really big day for the Detroit Tigers. They’ll welcome left-hander Tarik Skubal back with open arms as this series against the Athletics gets underway. Oakland will counter with southpaw JP Sears in a 6:40 p.m. ET start at Comerica Park.
Skubal’s last MLB start came back on August 1, 2022 as the final salvo in a season that saw him finish with a 3.52 ERA and a 2.96 FIP in 117.2 innings of work. He had 117 strikeouts in that span and then hit the IL requiring flexor tendon surgery. In five rehab starts, Skubal went 14.2 innings and allowed just two earned runs on nine hits with 20 strikeouts against three walks, so the stuff apparently seemed quite crisp.
Skubal maxed out at four innings and 68 pitches in the minors, so I wouldn’t expect miracles today. The Tigers have brought him along pretty slowly from the surgery and subsequent rehab, so they aren’t going to push him too hard now. He also went a week between starts on his fourth and fifth rehab outings and this is a little quicker of a turnaround, so I would think 75 pitches or five innings is the max.
But, it is a soft landing getting the A’s in his first start back. After being a decent offense early in the season on the road and against lefties, they have posted a .198 wOBA and a 21 wRC+ against lefties on the road since June 1, albeit in a small sample size of 99 plate appearances. On the road in general, they have a .304 wOBA and a 92 wRC+ in the sample.
As far as Sears goes, this is a road start, but Comerica Park isn’t a bad place to pitch with a spacious outfield. He has a 4.43 ERA with a 4.82 xERA and a 5.14 FIP in his 87.1 innings of work. He just got rocked by the Yankees and allowed seven runs on five hits over four innings, but he had been in a pretty nice groove prior to that with a 2.93 ERA in his previous eight starts. He still had a high 4.64 FIP because of the home runs, but that comes with the territory as a fly ball guy.
Quietly, the Tigers are ninth in wOBA at .323 against lefties since June 1. I was ready to take a chance on the A’s until I noticed that nugget. I think this price is a big ask of Skubal and the Tigers bullpen in his return, especially since that group has a 4.69 ERA in the last 14 days. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how Skubal does and adjust accordingly.
Toronto Blue Jays (-120, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
It will be Chris Bassitt and Lucas Giolito in the latest of the AL start times at Guaranteed Rate Field. At this point, I’d be better predicting lottery numbers than figuring out what Bassitt is going to do. His game logs are insane dating back to May 5:
May 5-17: 23 IP, 0 R, 9 H, 20 K, 7 BB (3 starts)
May 22-27: 10.1 IP, 16 H 13 R (9 ER), 5 HR, 9 K, 3 BB (2 starts) June 2-7: 15.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R (2 ER), 1 HR, 13 K, 0 BB (2 starts) June 13-23: 11.2 IP, 21 H, 17 R (15 ER), 4 HR, 11 K, 6 BB (3 starts) June 29: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 12 K (1 start)So, yeah… I don’t know what I’m supposed to do with that insane amount of inconsistency. For the season, it all adds up to a 4.06 ERA with a 4.84 FIP. He does draw a White Sox team that is closer to league average against righties since the start of June, but has been a well below average offense for the most part otherwise.
Giolito’s results have been a little bit steadier, as he comes in with a 3.53 ERA, 4.18 xERA, and a 4.24 FIP in 99.1 innings of work. He’s got well over a strikeout per inning and a solid walk rate, but there are some negative regression signs in the profile, namely a 79.3% LOB% that is a career-high for him.
His Hard Hit% is up to 41.5% and he’s been above that mark in each of his last three starts. He’s allowed a 10.3% Barrel% on the season with 28 total and he’s allowed eight of those in his last four starts. I’m not sure either pitcher is very trustworthy here and I especially don’t find Bassitt to be the least bit reliable, so this is a game with a wide range of outcomes that I can’t put my finger on.
Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants (-115, 8)
The Giants came up short in a wild ninth inning yesterday, as a 2-2 game ended 6-5 when Camilo Doval gave up four runs and Paul Sewald gave up three, but the Mariners prevailed as an underdog. The handicap was definitely right on Logan Webb, who had 11 strikeouts, but wrong on Bryan Woo, who navigated a lefty-heavy lineup well. The Giants even got Mike Yastrzemski back and couldn’t get much done offensively. Of course I happened to pick a day in which they gave Patrick Bailey a blow. That seems to happen a lot this season as well.
Today’s game features Logan Gilbert and Keaton Winn, as Winn starts a game that could feature Jakob Junis prominently as well, as he threw 17 pitches on Saturday and hasn’t been used otherwise in the last week. Sean Manaea threw 57 pitches on Saturday, so I don’t think he’s an option. It’s possible that Winn won’t need any help. He went six innings last time out against Toronto and allowed two runs on three hits with three strikeouts and a walk.
A big component of my handicap yesterday was to look at Webb in the matchup against Seattle because the Mariners strike out a lot. Winn only has 12 strikeouts in 71 batters faced and the other concern is that he has allowed a 50% Hard Hit%. He does have a 56% GB%, but his last two appearances have featured fewer grounders and more hard-hit balls, so we’ll see how he gets through this one.
Gilbert has a 4.19 ERA with a 3.55 xERA and a 3.62 FIP in 92.1 innings of work. He is a positive regression candidate due to a 64.5% LOB%. A huge drop in K% with men on base is to blame for the low LOB%. He’s got a 28.9% K% with the bases empty, but a 17.7% mark with men on base and a 16.5% K% with RISP. By BABIP, that split also goes .242, .322, .321, so he’s got some sort of hitch in his proverbial giddy-up when pitching from the stretch. That’ll be something that the Mariners need to fix and figure out.