Los Angeles Angels two-way megastar Shohei Ohtani is back on the bump for his team's Fourth of July game against the San Diego Padres. Check out our Shohei Ohtani player prop picks based on the best MLB odds.
The Angels continue their road series in San Diego with an epic Fourth of July clash against the Padres, and Ohtani & Co. have some bulletin board material following Monday night's loss.
Padres star outfielder Juan Soto made it clear ahead of Tuesday's game that his team isn't afraid of Ohtani.
“He's impressive but he's gonna have trouble to face this lineup (Tuesday). … I won't be scared to shuffle on his ass,” Soto said.
Fireworks on the Fourth of July? Sign us up.
Here are our best Shohei Ohtani player prop picks for the matchup between the L os Angeles Angels and San Diego Padres (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Shohei Ohtani player prop picks
- Shohei Ohtani more total bases than Juan Soto (+115 via bet365) ??
- Shohei Ohtani Under 7.5 strikeouts (-110 via BetRivers) ???
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Shohei Ohtani player props
If you want a more numbers-based pick, skip ahead to the next one. This one is just good old-fashioned vibe betting (fine, with maybe a sprinkle of numbers).
Now, I don't think Ohtani is a vengeful person, nor do I think he took anything Soto said overly personally. However, he's a fierce competitor who's shown on more than one occasion that he loves performing in situations that call for some added intensity (see: his appearance as Japan's closer in the World Baseball Classic final).
Soto has never had an issue with poking the bear – his patented “Soto Shuffle” that he referenced is proof of that – but may find himself recreating that scene in “The Revenant” on Tuesday.
The advantage in taking Ohtani in this bet is that he essentially controls both sides. Obviously, he'll do the hitting, and he'll also be the determining factor when it comes to how Soto performs at the plate (at least for as long as he's on the mound).
As far as that sprinkle of numbers goes, we can look at each player's total bases prop. Ohtani's prop is listed at 1.5 total bases across all of our best sports betting apps. And though the Under is juiced pretty heavily, there 's been at least some movement to the Over; most of our best sports betting sites have moved around five to 15 points shorter on the Over. Meanwhile, Soto's prop is listed at 0.5 total bases, showing that the sportsbooks don't expect him to have a big day at the plate.
Overall, this is only a two-star bet because it really is based on fun/entertainment more than anything else. I wouldn't recommend investing too much, but it will certainly add a little extra flavor to the game. bet365 is the only one of our best sportsbooks that offers this market.
We all know that Ohtani can rack up punchouts with the best of them, but the Padres don't really strike out at a high rate – they rank directly in the middle of the league with a 22.7% K rate. Something's gotta give, so let's look at the projections and odds movement.
By combining Ohtani's projected strikeout total at Ballpark Pal, NumberFire, and FantasyPros, we land on a number of 7.24. Based on that projection, we're getting +7.54% expected value by playing this number at BetRivers. Meanwhile, playing the Under at BetMGM (-130) provides an expected value of -0.34%, underscoring the importance of odds shopping.
Ballpark Pal also prices Under 7.5 strikeouts at -113, and it comes in as the high mark in terms of Ohtani's strikeouts projection at 7.46. If you used only Ballpark Pal's projection, this bet still comes with +1.28% expected value, showing that even the most optimistic models show value on the Under. If you use NumberFire's projection of 6.89 strikeouts, this bet comes with +17.48% expected value. The differences in these numbers show why it's important to use more than one projection model.
This is only a three-star bet, because we've yet to see much movement on Ohtani's strikeouts prop at Pinnacle. It's actually moved slightly to the Over, but it's been only a seven-point shift from the -103 opening number to -110.
Despite the lack of sharp movement in our favor, this is still worth playing when considering the value we're getting at BetRivers compared to some of our other best sportsbooks.
Angels vs. Padres odds
Shohei Ohtani prop picks pick made 7/4/2023 at 11 a.m. ET.
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