March Madness offers a variety of prop bets that can pay handsome rewards if identified accurately. Read on for our best pre-tournament March Madness prop bets based on the top NCAAB odds.
This year in college basketball was one of the most chaotic in recent memory, which means we should be in store for a wild NCAA Tournament.
Alabama's loss to Tennessee on Feb. 15 was the eighth by an AP No. 1 team, tying 1993-94 for the most ever in a regular season. If one counts conference tournaments, that number rose to nine when Houston lost to Memphis in the AAC tournament championship. In addition, North Carolina became the first preseason AP No. 1 team to miss the NCAA Tournament since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Here are our best March Madness prop bets.
March Madness prop bets
| Seed prop | Will a No. 2 Seed Win the NCAA Tournament: Yes |
| Tournament prop | Texas to win the national championship |
| Tournament prop | Alabama to win the South region |
| Tournament Prop | Creighton to make the Sweet 16 |
| Seed Prop | Will a No. 14 Seed Win a First Round Game: Yes |
| Tournament Prop | Duke will not make the Sweet 16 |
March Madness prop bets: Seed props
Caesars is the only sportsbook offering this specific prop at the moment, but we can't help but fire away at it even though a No. 2 seed has not even reached the national championship game since 2016.
Texas makes the most sense of all the No. 2 seeds (but more on that with our next wager).
We're backing the No. 2 seeds in general as the wager allows for more flexibility if Arizona can overcome its defensive issues (79th in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1) and UCLA can overcome injuries (forward Jaylen Clark is out for the year with a torn Achilles). Marquette is the least likely No. 2 seed to cut down the nets (Shaka Smart has lost his last seven NCAA Tournament games), but having the Big East regular season and tournament champion as part of the portfolio i s a good investment.
March Madness prop bets: Tournament props
We love the Longhorns because they are an experienced bunch (seventh-most D-I experience), and the Final Four being in Houston would give them a distinct advantage.
The narrative that the Longhorns are not a national title contender under interim head coach Rodney Terry can be put to bed after winning the Big 12 Tournament. The Longhorns have the experience (seventh-oldest team in the country) and the balance and depth offensively and defensively (they rank in the top 18 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency metric) to navigate a challenging field and cut down the nets in Houston.
Longhorns backers have an easy decision to place their pre-tournament wagers at FanDuel, whose +2000 trumps the +1200 at Caesars, +1400 at DraftKings, and +1600 at BetMGM.
< p class='text-left'>Alabama has the second-best odds of any team to win its region, and with good reason, as being the No. 1 overall seed allowed it the easiest path to the Sweet 16.
The Crimson Tide play their first two games in their own backyard in Birmingham, so the partisan crowd should see them past the winner of the 8-9 Maryland-West Virginia game. Awaiting in the Sweet 16 in Louisville could be San Diego State or Virginia, two experienced teams, but none with the offensive firepower to hang with Alabama on a hot-shooting night. While Arizona lurks as a dangerous No. 2 seed, the Wildcats would have no one to guard the versatile Brandon Miller. Arizona is the weakest No. 2 seed defensively, ranking outside the top 40 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
Alabama backers have their choice of BetMGM or FanDuel, who offer the best odds at +190, while Caesars is as low as +140 for the Crimson Tide to reach the Final Four.
March Madness prop bets: Round props
Many were shocked when Creighton's first-round opponent, NC State, made the tournament field and avoided a First Four game to boot. The Bluejays are a nightmare matchup for the Wolfpack, as NC State relied on pressure all year to force turnovers at the ACC's third-highest rate in league play. However, Creighton deploys a two-point guard lineup with Ryan Nembhard and Trey Alexander. They are a big reason the Bluejays rank second among all D-I teams in press offense, per Synergy.
Once past the Wolfpack, Creighton's elite offense should run circles around an overrated Baylor team that ranked last in the Big 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense. The NCAA Game Simulator agrees, as Creighton beat Baylor 52.9% of the time in 2,222 simulations of games where there is no hom e-court advantage.
FanDuel again offers the best odds for this wager, as the Bluejays are as low as +125 to reach the Sweet 16 at DraftKings.
March Madness prop bets: Seed Prop
Bettors will only find this prop bet offered at Caesars at the moment. And while it may feel like we should be getting more than a “coin flip” to back at least one No. 14 seed to beat a No. 3 seed, we see a lot of vulnerability in the No. 3 seeds to make this wager worth it.
Baylor is one of the more one-dimensional teams in the NCAA Tournament field, leading the Big 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency and ranking last in defensive efficiency. The Gauchos were the most potent offensive team in the Big West, and their ability to carve up a weak Baylor defense gives us the most optimism in them pulling the upset.
Xavier showed its Jekyll and Hyde tend encies on consecutive nights at the Big East Tournament, beating Creighton by 22 and losing to Marquette by 14 in a game they trailed by 27 at one point. The Musketeers drew an athletic Kennesaw State team that could hang with the Musketeers for a while.
Montana State gets to the free throw line at a top-five rate and knocks them down when it does, with the 32nd-best free throw percentage in the country. We are least confident in Grand Canyon upsetting Gonzaga, but the Antelopes did shoot 48.4% from 3-point range over the four games in its conference tournament, and all it takes is one hot-shooting night to pull an upset.
March Madness prop bets: Tournament prop
While all sportsbooks offer wagers for a team making the Sweet 16, only FanDuel and Caesars allow you to back the “no” option that they will fall short before that round. Considering Caesars' odds are at -200 on the “no” for Duke, we are wagering on this pick at FanDuel.
Many pundits have Duke penciled into the Elite 8 or beyond, citing that they were placed in the region with the weakest No. 1 seed (Purdue). However, the Blue Devils will first have two difficult opponents to contend with.
Oral Roberts owns the nation's longest active winning streak at 17 games. It is led by one of the best players in the country, Max Abmas, and returns many key pieces from a team that made the Sweet 16 two years ago. And even if Duke beats the up-tempo Golden Eagles, who rank third in the country in scoring at 84.2 points per game, it has a much different prep on short rest in preparing for a possible matchup with a Tennessee team that ranks second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- FanDuel: Get 10x Your First Bet up to $200 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Online Sportsbooks | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)