One of the greatest excitements when filling out your bracket: What team will be that special Cinderella? While it doesn't happen all too often, teams that go on Cinderella runs are impossible to forget, and every year offers a new opportunity for one to be born. This tournament has some of the best double-digit seeds, and some of the worst lower-digit seeds, so don’t be surprised to see a lot of close games.
The term “Cinderella” is thrown around and doesn't have a solidified meaning. In this case, I am simply referring to any team seeded 13 or lower as a Cinderella candidate. There are some pretty incredible 12 seeds in this tournament, but I will not be including those in this article. Here's a look at the 16 lowest-seeded teams in the tournament, along with their chances of a first-round upset (out of five ).
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No. 13 Seeds
A heartbreaking buzzer-beater loss kept Furman out of last year’s NCAA Tournament, but the Paladins left no doubt this time around with an 88-79 win over Chattanooga in the Southern Conference championship game to secure their automatic bid. Furman runs its top-40 offense through Jalen Slawson and Mike Bothwell. Slawson has an effective deep shot and the size to guard anyone on the court with his 6-foot-7 frame. Bothwell is effective at getting to the rim and takes care of the ball at a high clip.
The Paladins depend heavily on shooting from deep, with 35% of their points coming from beyond the arc, the 62nd-highest mark in the nation. A physical team could give Furman problems, and the Paladins’ 184th-ranked defense will not match up well with high-powered offenses. But Furman knows how to win, and there is a lot of experience on this team. Bob Richey coaches a team that could spring a first-round upset simply by virtue of a strong offense capable of getting hot.
They match up quite well with Virginia, considering Virginia’s preference for allowing perimeter looks, and with the absence of Ben Vander Plas, Furman should be able to find plenty of mid-range looks. This will be a game that comes down to the final seconds; the Paladins are capable of pulling off the upset.
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The Ragin’ Cajuns made their way into the NCAA Tournament by winning the Sun Belt tourney. After dropping three straight games at the end of December, Louisiana-Lafayette has lost only three games in 2023, all on the road. Bob Marlin leads an effective offense that shoots well from beyond the arc but can take it inside as well with top-100 2pt% shooting. Jordan Brown is a 6-foot-11 center who is an incredible rim protector and rebounder, with the ability to kick it out to shooters Greg Williams and Kentrell Garnett.
Louisiana-Lafayette’s defense isn’t the best, particularly when it comes to defending the perimeter, but the Ragin’ Cajuns don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Bob Marlin has coached in the NCAA Tournament before, and with Louisiana-Lafayette’s ability to rebound and get to the hoop, this will be a difficult team to stop. Facing an interior-based defense wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for the Cajuns, as leaning on their high-percentage perimeter shooting is something they’ve done in the past.
Tennessee isn’t the best draw. Despite missing Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee still has one of the best defenses in the nation and won’t allow much down low. Louisiana-Lafayette’s subpar defense is a good matchup for Tennessee, which is still trying to find itself offensively.
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The Golden Flashes enter the tournament having won six straight games and running through a difficult MAC tournament. Sincere Carry is a talented guard and sharpshooter Jalen Sullinger adds to Kent State’s 110th-ranked offense. But this is a defense-first squad. Ranking 38th in adjusted defense, Kent State forces turnovers at a high rate and gives up almost nothing inside.
The Golden Flashes’ physical play leads to foul trouble sometimes, and Kent State doesn’t have a lot of depth. The Golden Flashes have stuck with some top opponents this year, losing by five at Houston, falling to Charleston in a one-possession game, and losing by single digits at Gonzaga. This is a tough team that will be a tough out. Rob Senderoff has led Kent State to the tournament once before, so this isn’t anything new for this experienced squad.
What I love about their matchup against Indiana is how much the Hoosiers depend on interior scoring, and how much Kent State eliminates inside looks. The Golden Flashes have seen some fantastic bigs, like Drew Timme; they should be able to whip up a game plan to handle the Hoosiers. I love picking the Golden Flashes here to not only beat Indiana but potentially make a Sweet 16 game as well.
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With Rick Pitino as head coach, is it really a surprise that Iona finds itself back in the NCAA Tournament? The Gaels have been impressive under Pitino, ranking 75th in KenPom. The Gaels’ perimeter defense is elite, with opponents scoring fewer than 27% of their points from beyond the arc, shooting at a sub-30% clip. The Gaels force turnovers at a high rate, but their rebounding is subpar, opening the door for opponents’ second-chance looks.
Offensively, the Gaels dominate on the interior, rebounding at a high rate while taking care of the ball. Iona doesn’t have to be perfect against its opponents to stick with them. The Gaels love to get out in transition, and they score effectively off steals. They play lockdown defense, forcing opponents deep into the shot clock and giving them tough looks. If things go the Gaels’ way, Iona is a capable team of pulling off a first-round upset.
UConn is a team that allows a good amount of mid-range looks, so Iona should not have too much trouble scoring. Where the Gaels may truly struggle, however, is on the glass. They will have to eliminate the offensive boards for Connecticut if Pitino and Co. hope to pull this one off.
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No. 14 Seeds
The Gauchos out of the Big West find themselves in another tournament led by their high-powered offense. Ajay Mitchell is a leading guard with a top-100 assist rate in the nation who can get to the rim at a high clip. Miles Norris and Calvin Wishart are both effective sharpshooters who can catch fire when needed. Santa Barabara has height and plays slow, getting inside the paint for most of their scoring. What is questionable about the Gauchos is how their defense will play when lined up against better Division I opponents. Ranking 162nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, their interior defense is subpar at best. They truly lack depth, ranking 343rd in bench minutes. Any up-tempo, dribble-drive team can cause major issues for Santa Barbara, and it remains to be seen whether their offense is good enough to keep up with their opponent.
Baylor is truly a solid matchup, considering Baylor’s 104th-ranked defense and preference for perimeter looks. The frontcourt of Baylor can very well be tough to keep up with, but in a potentially high-scoring affair, the Gauchos could surprise here.
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The metrics weren’t exactly high on the Bobcats this year due to a high number of close wins, but Montana State seemed like the best team in the Big Sky Conference, finishing the regular season with a road victory over Eastern Washington and then taking down the Big Sky Conference tournament. This team is led by RaeQuan Battle, an effective guard who has Division I experience after transferring from Washington.