I’ve recalled for a few years now about the home/road exploits of guys like Zack Greinke or Jose Berrios, as they are well-known trends in betting circles. As each of them pitched at home late last week, it got me thinking, are these trends still valid, and are they worth backing? Are there other pitchers across the league that have even more defined performance variances when it comes to where they are pitching? Of course, I figured it was worth finding out, especially with the season being just over a month old. With that in mind, I dug into the database to study pitching location performances for all starting pitchers since the start of the 2021 season.
In all, there were 263 pitchers that have started at least five games both at home and on the road over the last 2+ seasons. Below, I’ve cited the biggest won-lost records, betting units, and key stats variances from their home and road starts. Use these to take advantage of these ACTIVE rotation pitchers in their upcoming starts so long as the trends continue. If you’re interested specifically in the Berrios/Greinke angles, you’ll see that Berrios comes up as the #3 active pitcher on my first list of those performing better at home than on the road. Greinke’s home superiority has slowed to where he is just +1.03 units at home and -4.24 units on the road. Nowhere near as stark of a difference as it used to be.
Biggest Betting Units Variations – Better at HOME
- Dane Dunning (TEX): +20.9 units
- Sean Manaea (SF): +18.67 units
- Jose Berrios (TOR): +18.3 units
- Jacob deGrom (TEX): +17.1 units
- Antonio Senzatela (COL): +16.8 units