In what may remain the only AP top-8 non-conference matchup of the entire season, the No. 5 LSU Tigers face the No. 8 Florida State Seminoles in an opener with massive College Football Playoff implications. Read on for our LSU vs. Florida State prediction based on the best college football odds.
Florida State and LSU engaged in a classic early September showdown last season, although it didn't serve as the opener for both teams as is the case with this year's meeting. Florida State had an advantage last year, having an extra week to prepare by defeating Duquesne 47-7 the week before their encounter. When the two teams faced off in New Orleans the following week, the Seminoles narrowly secured a 24-23 victory after the Tigers scored a last-second touchdown. However, Florida State sealed the win by blocking the subsequent extra point, which would have forced overtime.
Florida State improved to 2-0 for the first time since 2016 with that victory and started 4-0 before three straight losses in ACC play derailed its hopes for a conference championship. However, the Seminoles rebounded with six consecutive wins to end the season, culminating with a 35-32 victory over Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl.
Meanwhile, the season-opening loss didn't ultimately bury LSU, who won nine of its next 11 before losing by 20 points to eventual national champion Georgia in the SEC Championship. The Tigers put an exclamation point on a successful first season under head coach Brian Kelly with a 65-7 trouncing of Purdue in the Citrus Bowl, played at the same venue where the game against Florida State will be.
See which way we're leaning with our college football Week 1 predictions.
Here is our best LSU vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
LSU vs. Florida State prediction: Week 1
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There's always a certain level of SEC bias in these non-conference matchups, given the conference won the last four national championships and 13 of the previous 17. But don't take the bait with the Tigers laying less than a field goal, as the Seminoles should be just as competitive as they were in last year's outright win against LSU.
Florida State's most significant advantage and easiest path to victory is to rely on college football's most veteran O-line, whose 206 combined starts is an NCAAF most. Louisville's 150 combined offensive line starts a distant second, per Phil Steele. For the second year in a row, the Seminoles won't deal with LSU game wrecker, defensive tackle Maason Smith for a full 60 minutes, one of the sport's best defensive linemen. Smith, a quintessential run stuffer and potential top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, is suspended over improper benefits after tearing his ACL in the first half of last year's game.
Head coach Brian Kelly also said running back John Emery is “unavailable” after finishing third among Tigers' RBs in rushing and second in total touchdowns last year. The newfound lack of running back depth should aid a Seminoles' D that was 80th in rushing success rate last season.
LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels averaged 307.8 yards per game against ranked teams last season. But Florida State's front seven is relentless at creating pressure, coming off a season ranked fifth in sack rate and ninth in yards allowed per dropback. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis is not receiving nearly the same amount of Heisman Trophy publicity Daniels saw early in the season. Still, he'll cause fits for the Tigers' defense with his unique running ability (9.7 yards per scramble last year).
Florida State went into a pro-LSU Superdome last season and handled its business, and should have the bulk of the fans this year in Orlando. The Seminoles rank in the college football's top 10 in returning production (including 14 of 22 starters), and combined with outstanding success in the transfer portal, should lead to a cover in the opener.
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LSU vs. Florida State best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| (-110) | (-115) | (-110) | (-110) | (-110) |
Many bettors won't see much difference between a +2 and +2.5-point spread, given that both are under the key number of three. However, as in last year's matchup, every point matters. And even those sportsbooks that offer a spread of +2.5 vary in the juice they charge, with BetRivers saving bettors $7 per $100 bet on the same point spread.
LSU vs. Florida State odds
LSU vs. Florida State odds analysis
As of Wednesday, all five of our best sports betting apps were aligned with a spread of +2.5 at -110 odds. However, FanDuel felt compelled to stay at the number but move to -115, while Caesars and bet365 lowered to +2, possibly to lure more LSU money.
All of our best sports betting sites except one (FanDuel) are currently at a total of 56.5, with FanDuel one point lower at 55.5. BetMGM and DraftKings reached highs of 58.5 as of last Saturday, while FanDuel's peak number was 57.5. Sharp money drove the total down, as 53% of the wagers backed the Over, representing good two-way action.
From a moneyline perspective, LSU ranges from a low of -134 at FanDuel to a high of -142 at DraftKings.
LSU vs. Florida State game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 3, 2023, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 74 degrees, 11% chance of precipitation, wind 12-mph NE
LSU vs. Florida prediction made Friday, Sept. 1 at 6:42 a.m. ET.
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