Cowboys vs. Giants Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Division Rivals Clash on Sunday Night Football

Let's dive in with our best Cowboys-Giants prediction for Sunday Night Football based on the top NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.

The Dallas Cowboys are one of five teams to win 12 or more games in consecutive seasons and yet fail to reach the conference championship. Furthermore, their streak of 12 consecutive playoff appearances without reaching a conference championship game is the longest since the 1970 merger.

Meanwhile, in 2022, the New York Giants achieved a 9-7-1 record, securing their first playoff berth since 2016, and their wild-card win over the Minnesota Vikings marked their first playoff victory since 2012. However, according to ESPN Analytics, the Giants are currently given the second-lowest chance (36%) among all 2022 playoff teams to make the postseason in 2023.

Here's our best Cowboys-Giants pre diction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Sunday Night Football odds and picks, and our NFL Week 1 predictions.

Cowboys vs. Giants prediction

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Giants quarterback Daniel Jones finished with the shortest average pass distance in 2022 (6.0 air yards per attempt). However, that also resulted in a career-high 60.8 total QBR (sixth) and a 15:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jones also posted career-bests in completion percentage (67.2%, ranking sixth) and passing yards (3,205) while sitting sixth in interception percentage. 

The quarterback had d ifficulties when facing the top two NFC East teams in 2022, the Philadelphia Eagles and Cowboys, losing all three starts and maintaining a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Nonetheless, the fact that running back Saquon Barkley is both signed and healthy is a positive sign, as his presence has historically been a significant boost for the quarterback, Daniel Jones.

The signal-caller has played 34 games with Barkley while averaging 230 passing yards per contest and throwing 44 touchdown passes to 17 interceptions. Jones' TD:INT ratio is 16:17 over 19 games without Barkley, and he's averaging 198 passing yards per game. New York has posted a plus-40.1 offensive EPA with a healthy Barkley over the last five seasons while averaging 5.4 yards per play and 4.7 per rush. The team has produced a -126.9 offensive EPA without him while recording 5.0 yards per play and 4.2 yards per rush.

Dallas ranked second in the NFL with 26.0 offensive points per game from 2019 to 2022 when Kellen Moore was the team's offensive coordinator. But Moore is now with the Los Angeles Chargers, and we don't trust Mike McCarthy's play-calling, as he's calling plays for the first time in four seasons. The Cowboys will also struggle to gel while breaking in a new quarterbacks coach, offensive line coach, and running backs coach.

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott threw a career-high 15 interceptions in 2022, tying for the NFL lead. Additionally, his 3.8% interception rate was the fourth-highest of any quarterback over the previous five seasons. He posted three games with a total QBR under 25, and we expect a Giants defense that ranked first in total QBR (46), fifth in third-down percentage (35%), and sixth in pressure percentage (32%) to limit Dallas' offensive ceiling.

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Cowboys vs. Giants best odds

BetMGM is the only shop not offering the three points with the hook on the underdogs, with that shop instead standing pat on the key number of three. With all of our other best live betting sites at a more enticing number of +3.5, FanDuel becomes our go-to book since it charges the least juice. Caesars and bet365 are at the highest price of -120.

Cowboys vs. Giants odds

Cowboys vs. Giants odds analysis

DraftKings has been fluctuating between +3 and +3.5 throughout the week, while BetMGM and Caesars haven't budged from a spread of +3.5 once those books arrived there from +3. One interesting trend for Giants backers is that home underdogs in divisional Week 1 matchups are 15-2-1 against the spread since the start of 2012 and 10-6-2 straight up, according to Todd Fuhrman. 

There's a slightly wider gap among our best sportsbooks regarding the total, as BetMGM, bet365, and BetRivers are posting an O/U of 45.5, while Caesars is offering the highest at 46.5. Among those shops at 45.5, FanDuel is the only one juiced to the Under (-115).

All of our top sportsbooks reached a high of 46.5 at one point. But either sharp action or the threat of poor weather on Sunday night drove the total down (57% of wagers are backing the Under).

Cowboys vs. Giants game info

• When: Sunday, September 10 at 8:20 p.m. ET
• Where: Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• How to watch: NBC
• Weather: 70 degrees, 80% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph SE

Cowboys-Giants prediction made 9/7/2023 at 12:53 p.m. ET

NFL betting odds pages

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSGET | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

  
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