In one of the more intriguing first-round matchups, the 12th-seeded Charleston Cougars and fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs square off Thursday. Read on for our best Charleston vs. San Diego State prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
They say styles make fights, and that's especially true in the 12-5 matchup in the South region. The Cougars rank inside the top 30 in adjusted tempo and take college basketball's ninth-most 3-pointers. The Aztecs, meanwhile, want to slow the game down and rely on their 10th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency.
Charleston (31-3) earned its first AP Poll ranking in 20 years earlier this season, and ultimately won the Colonial Athletic Association with relative ease. San Diego State (27-6) won the Mountain West Conference, but this team is trying to win its first NCAA Tournament game since 2015.
Here is our best Charleston vs. San Diego State prediction (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Charleston vs. San Diego State odds
Charleston vs. San Diego State prediction
As an avid fan of the Mountain West Conference, I jumped on San Diego State -4.5 as soon as the betting lines opened Sunday. I recommend this at -5, as I'd even be willing to play this four-star pick up to -6. Charleston might be a trending upset pick, but San Diego State has clear schematic advantages.
The Cougars want to push the ball out in transition and turn this game into a track meet. But the reason the Aztecs are so good at slowing things down is that they rank in the 77th percentile in transition defense, per Synergy Sports Technology.
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Charleston wants to shoot a lot of 3-pointers, but San Diego State defends the 3-point line at the NCAAB's seventh-best clip, holding opposing teams to a 29.2% effort from long range. Because the Cougars run pick-and-roll just 15% of the time, the athletic Aztecs won't have a problem sticking with shooters.
It's March Madness, so anything can happen. San Diego State doesn't always have the best shot selection, and this team hasn't made it to the Sweet 16 since 2014. But that changes this year, starting with a comfortable victory over Charleston in the opening round.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
Charleston vs. San Diego State best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | Barstool |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5 | -5 |
| -110 | -110 | -105 | -110 | -112 |
Check out our breakdown of the best March Madness odds and all of our March Madness picks and betting trends.
Caesars is the only shop still hanging a 5-point spread with standard -110 odds, making the choice for playing the favorite easy. Because Charleston is a trendy underdog, don't expect this line to get much higher than 6, and that's where we'd play it up to.
Charleston vs. San Diego State odds analysis
San Diego State opened as a 4.5-point favorite when lines were first released Sunday, but the market settled at 5 as of Thursday morning. The total now sits at 142.5 after opening at 141 across the board.
Charleston went 19-13-1 against the spread this season, while San Diego State posted a 15-15-2 ATS clip. The Cougars were 19-13-1 to the Unde r, and the Aztecs finished with a 18-14 Under record.
Charleston vs. San Diego State game info
- Date: Thursday, March 16, 3:10 p.m. ET
- TV: TruTV
- Location: Amway Center, Orlando, FL
Charleston vs. San Diego State pick made 3/14/2023 at 11:25 a.m. ET.
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