The Buffalo Bills (8-3) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (6-5) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Foxborough for Thursday Night Football.
The Patriots are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Patriots Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 13
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 13 game with 72.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 13 with 54.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Devin Singletary has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Damien Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.10 Units / 28% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Bills
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +550 |
| Stefon Diggs | +550 |
| Gabriel Davis | +900 |
| Devin Singletary | +1000 |
| Josh Allen | +1000 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Bills
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | -140 |
| Stefon Diggs | -115 |
| Gabriel Davis | +150 |
| Devin Singletary | +180 |
| Josh Allen | +180 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Patriots vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 11.5 -110 | 11.5 -120 |
| Gabriel Davis | 50.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 |
| Stefon Diggs | 82.5 -115 | 82.5 -115 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 27.5 -120 | 27.5 -110 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 31.5 -115 | 31.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 61.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 |
| Devin Singletary | 53.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
| Josh Allen | 43.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 |
Bills Best Bets for Week 13:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 13 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 22% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets for Week 13:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.40 Units / 58% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 38% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.12% ROI).
- Bills are 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -5.41% ROI
- Bills are 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
- Bills are 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 6-4 (+1.75 Units / 14.89% ROI).
- Patriots are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -9.92% ROI
- Patriots are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
- Patriots are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bills are winless (0-2) when scoring less than 22 points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .267.
The Bills are 8-2 (.800) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — sixth-best in NFL. The Patriots have turned the ball over 19 times this season — fourth-most in NFL.
The Bills are 15-4 (.789) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .552.
The Bills are 8-2 (.800) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .587.