The New York Jets host the AFC East favorite Buffalo Bills, and we provide our Bills-Jets predictions for Monday Night Football, based on the best NFL odds.
The Buffalo Bills are one of three teams to have made the playoffs in each of the past three seasons. However, their playoff journey last year concluded with a disappointing 27-10 loss in the Divisional Round to the Cincinnati Bengals. Over the preceding three seasons, Bills quarterback Josh Allen ranks third in wins as a starter, is tied for third in passing touchdowns, and boasts the second-best Total QBR.
No team made a more significant offseason acquisition than the New York Jets, who acquired future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback. The Jets have had only one 4,000-yard passing season and one 30-touchdown passing season in their franchise history, with none of their quarterbacks ever winning the MV P award.
Meanwhile, Rodgers alone has 10 4,000-yard seasons, eight 30-passing touchdown seasons, and four MVPs. The Jets entered last year with a 22% chance to make the playoffs and had the AFC's worst FPI rank. This year, they have a 52% chance of getting to the postseason and are fourth in the conference in FPI, per ESPN Analytics.
Here is our best Bills vs. Jets Monday Night Football prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Jets prediction: Monday Night Football
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It can't be overstated how much of a loss edge rusher Von Miller is for the Bills' defense, as he begins the year on the PUP list. Buffalo's four-man pass rush from Weeks 1-11 ranked sixth in pressure percentage and 10th in sack percentage, while from Week 12 through the Divisional Round, it was 19th in pressure percentage and 20th in sack percentage.
Miller tore his ACL in Week 12. He had the highest Pass Rush Win Rate of any Bills defender last season (23.6%, ranked 7th), while no other Bills player was higher than a 13.5% Pass Rush Win Rate or ranked better than 53rd in that metric (Buffalo had just four players ranked in the top-115).
If the Bills can't generate a consistent pass rush against Rodgers, he should be successful in his Jets debut. When pressured over the last three seasons, Rodgers ranks 21st in QBR, 25th in completion percentage, and 27th in first-down percentage. When not pressured, he's second in QBR, fourth in completion percentage, and fourth in first-down percentage. The Jets were 21st in Pass Block Win Rate (57%) in 2022, but injuries played a big part, as they had six different starting offensive tackles, an NFL most.
New York's defense ranked fourth in points per game, second in yards per play, and eighth in Total QBR allowed. With Buffalo starting three new offensive linemen at left guard, right guard, and right tackle, keeping the Jets out of the backfield will be difficult.
In the preseason, the Jets' D had a 10.3% sack percentage (2nd-highest) while blitzing 16.9% of the time (3rd-lowest). It had the most preseason sacks of any team (14) and should continue its high pressured rate with a four-man pass rush from last season (pressured QBs on 30% of dropbacks in 2022 with a four-man rush, ranked 6th).
Buffalo has dominated the recent head-to-head matchups, winning five out of the last six meetings. However, New York's sole victory came when Zach Wilson was the starting quarterback last season. Facing Aaron Rodgers in the upcoming game will be a significantly tougher challenge for New York.
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Bills vs. Jets best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +114 | +118 | +115 | +122 | +125 |
Not much separates our best sports betting apps regarding moneyline odds, though some bettors might view the $11 difference between the best odds at DraftKings' +114 as a significant gap. Jets' backers will likely take the trend that the team is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games against AFC East opponents with a grain of salt, especially since one of those wins was at home against Buffalo last year, and Aaron Rodgers is now quarterback.
Bills vs. Jets odds for Monday Night Football
Bills vs. Jets odds analysis
All of our best sports betting sites agree with Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite. While BetMGM, FanDuel, bet365, and Caesars offer standard juice on either side of this spread, DraftKings and BetRivers are at -112 and -113, respectively. Over 66% percent of wagers are on the Bills, a big reason why the line moved up from an opening number of -1.5 at most shops.
While most of our best sportsbooks landed on a total of 45.5, BetRivers is the only shop at 45, with -114 odds to back the Over. FanDuel and Caesars came down considerably from highs of 47, while the total at BetMGM and DraftKings peaked at 46.5 before settling at 45.5. The Under cashed in seven of Buffalo's last eight road games.
Monday Night Football game info
- When: Monday, Sept. 11 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- How to watch: ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 62 degrees, 13% chance of precipitation, 7-mph NNE wind
Bills-Jets prediction made Saturday, 9/9/23 at 7:04 a.m. ET
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