Can Stephen Curry and Draymond Green lead the Warriors to a win over the Houston Rockets? Jon Metler shares two of his favorite NBA same-game parlays for Monday's games using the latest NBA odds.
Our biggest enemy in backing Curry and Green in a same-game parlay might be a Warriors blowout win against the Houston Rockets, but the Rockets have been fighting of late, defeating the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, and New Orleans Pelicans last week.
As the Western Conference standings are tightening up, I expect the Warriors' best players to come through on Monday, plus the math says they will.
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Monday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Monday's NBA SGP picks
| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| Timberwolves-Knicks | Gobert 12+ rebounds, Conley Over 5.5 assists | +280 |
| Warriors-Rockets | Curry Over 29.5 points, Green Over 6.5 assists | +264 |
Check out our parlay calculator here!
Warriors vs. Rockets odds
Check out our complete list of NBA odds here!
NBA SGP predictions: Timberwolves vs. Knicks
Gobert will be facing Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks, which will force him to stay close to the basket. Robinson is always hunting the offensive glass, which means Gobert will not spend a great deal of time on the perimeter.
Gobert is projected to grab 11.8 boards on Monday, which means we can price him at +100 for 12 or more rebounds. The expected value of this bet is 7% and if you haven't already done so, you should go shopping for a straight bet on Gobert Over 10.5 rebounds.
With Anthony Edwards sidelined by an ankle injury, the Timberwolves are in desperate need of someone to create offense, and Conley will be tasked with this responsibility. Conley has been a boom-or-bust player with his assists prop ever since he joined the Timberwolves, and Monday's projections indicate that this bet will end with a green checkmark.
It's projected that Conley will drop 6.4 dimes against the Knicks, so we can price Over 5.5 assists at -140, yet we can purchase it at -114 via FanDuel. Other sports betting sites are trading the Over 5.5 assists much lower, such as Caesars, which has it juiced to -128.
NBA SGP predictions: Warriors vs. Rockets
My intention was to use Curry's 35-plus points prop on the same-game parlay because I already gave out Curry Over 28.5 points (-115) via Caesars in our NBA best bets, so I was hoping to roll the dice a little more in the same-game parlay.
The problem is that Curry's alternate Over on FanDuel gives us no value from a pricing perspective, and the best edge is on his normal prop. We have to respect the numbers and take what the defense gives us. As Curry is projected to score 30.4 points, the 35-plus points bet should be trading at +230, but we're receiving +200.
It may not be as good as Caesars' edge, but it's superior to the 35-plus points market, as this wager has a positive expected value of 2%.
When I recommended betting on Green's Over 6.5 assists at +110 via DraftKings in the NBA best bets, I explained that this prop would not be trading at a plus price once tip-off rolls around. We're down to two plus prices available in the market, and one of them is at FanDuel, where Green is +100, and the other is at DraftKings, where he's also +100.
As Green is proj ected to drop 7.1 assists against the Rockets, the Over 6.5 assists should be trading at -125 instead of +100.
NBA player prop picks made 03/20/2023 at 3 p.m. ET.
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