Best bets for UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
UFC 294 from Abu Dhabi, the Arab Emirates, comprises thirteen MMA bouts featuring athletes from India, Afghanistan, England, Tajikistan, Nigeria, and Dagestan, not to mention staples like Brazil, Russia and the US.
Prelims for UFC 294 begin at 7 a.m. PT, with the main card kicking off at 11 a.m. PT. This week, we’ll enjoy KOs with our coffee.
Both the main and co-main events have been altered with new opponents in the last couple of weeks, compounding the interest and intrigue for each bout.
Paramount in profiting from UFC events on foreign soil is understanding that the UFC is primarily interested in its growth. The expansion of its brand comes from igniting interest in every corner of the world. The most effective way to accomplish that is to grant regional athletes somewhat favorable matchups when these foreign cards are held.
Local talent succeeding fuels regional growth, and with athletes from remote countries like Afghanistan and India featured on this card, it takes a little more scrutiny to determine if the regional athlete is set up favorably or not.
Islam Makhachev -260 vs. Alexander Volkanovski +210
Lightweight Championship (155 pounds) Main Event
Finocchiaro: Several months after their original tussle, this rematch is much different this time because current featherweight champion Volkanovski takes this challenge on about two weeks’ notice.
Australian Volkanovski, the current featherweight title holder and acknowledged “pound-for-pound” champion in the UFC, moves up a weight class again to challenge Russian grappling savant Makhachev.
Makhachev holds the lightweight title. The late notice change of opponent will challenge him, for he was preparing for a completely different fighting challenge, one he surely felt more comfortable with.
Instead of a long, lanky Brazilian foe, he gets an unrelenting Aussie buzzsaw who had Makhachev on the ropes in the fifth round of their razor-close split decision fight this past February.
Makhachev is four inches taller, but he’ll have no reach advantage. At 32, he’s three years younger and is the competitor used to facing larger, heavier athletes in competition. His striking is serviceable, and his grappling/sambo/wrestling is world-class dominant.
In Volkanovski, we get a uniquely constructed athlete who, in his youth, played championship team rugby at 205 pounds! Volkanovski uses discipline, fortitude, and grit to attain the 145-pound limit, let alone dominate there.
Based on his performance in their first bout, Volkanovski should have no issues competing at lightweight, but how much does this bout change from the first based on the short notice nature for each athlete and the lack of camp time for Volkanovski?
Volkanovski’s footwork and striking proved to be superior to Makhachev’s in the first bout. While he’s not the grappling threat that Makhachev is, his wrestling base, coupled with his short, stout frame, presented Makhachev with a tremendous challenge, especially as the fight wore on and the Russian began to slow.
Once the bell for this rematch rings, I’ll be lasered in on how Volkanovski approaches champion Makhachev. Will he use patience and try to go deep into the fight, showing more potential conditioning than many may give him credit for? Or, will Volk attack and try to get the belt wrested from the champion early based again on the short notice nature of this fight?
For Makhachev, nothing changes. He will wrestle early and often, for that’s the best way to usurp Volkanovski’s energy and make him vulnerable in the later rounds. I must say that while Makhachev’s had the benefit of a full camp, he’s undoubtedly feeling the anxiety in this switch of opponents because Volkanovski is THE most viable threat to Makhachev.
Volkanovski’s mentality, coupled with that compact frame, incredible strength, and Greco-Roman wrestling base, are his weaponry. Something tells me a professional like Volkanovski, while not actively training, is never far from top conditioning. I believe that.
Makhachev opened at -330 in the first bout and closed at -400.
In this one, Makhachev opened -200 and has been bet up to the current -260, most likely because he’s the legitimate lightweight titleholder with a full training camp behind him.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -125
I’ll have more to say about this fight as the week progresses.
Kuhn: This rematch is arguably better than the other rematch that was initially planned. Charles Oliveira was approaching a +300 underdog while getting his rematch. But the new opponent of Alexander Volkanovski has drawn a tighter line in the area of +200, despite making only his second move up to Lightweight.
That may be because Volkanovski put in a much closer fight than Oliveira did, with the Aussie forcing Makhachev to a close decision, compared to Oliveira getting finished within two rounds. In his first fight against Makhachev, Volkanovski won two rounds on two cards by minimizing time spent getting wrestled for three out of five rounds and also landing the more damaging strikes throughout, including a knockdown in the fifth.
Having shown up so well despite being an overwhelming underdog in their first meeting, one might expect Volkanovski to bring greater confidence in his striking to this rematch. Per current market odds, apparently, the public agrees, hence a much different betting line this second time around.
But the dynamics haven’t changed much. Volkanovski is still arguably the superior technical striker, while Makhachev can steal any round by getting just one takedown and milking it for all its worth. Last time out, Makhachev was the more hesitant striker but landed one takedown in rounds one through four, which put him in cruise control before he nearly lost everything in the final round.
I don’t expect too much different. While Volkanovski may have resurgent confidence to test his opponent’s chin, we can’t ignore the fact that Makhachev is still likely to spend extended minutes in ground or clinch control, which is unlikely to draw any boos from a favorable audience. And he, too, has the benefit of hindsight from the last performance.
Ultimately, this feels like a pass. Volkanovski needs to land something big and early to score the upset, while Makhachev, playing it conservatively, should lead the fight into the championship rounds. Props and parlays might be the only way to find value in this matchup.
Khazmat Chimaev -275 vs. Kamaru Usman +230
Middleweight (185 pounds) co-main event