Best bets for UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Salt Lake City hosts this week’s UFC 291 where fight fans will witness a much-anticipated rematch in the lightweight division. Second-ranked Dustin Poirier faces third-ranked Justin Gaethje for the ‘BMF’ belt. Whether for a mythological belt, the lightweight championship or a backyard melee, all these two require to face one another in an epic rematch is time and place.
Dustin Poirier -145 vs. Justin Gaethje +125
Lightweight (155 pounds) Main Event
Finocchiaro: I was fortunate enough to be live at the first bout between these two in Phoenix in 2018 when Poirier, who’d had his legs bludgeoned by the unrelenting forward striking pressure of Gaethje, ultimately ignored his injuries, persevered and finished Gaethje in the fourth in an ultra-impressive display of guts and grind.
What Gaethje took from that experience is what many did in that he realized that his “go for broke” fight style, though entertaining for fans, had to be refined, and a true fight plan had to be installed if he had any aspirations of taking the title for this division. Attributes such as footwork, patience, strike defense and levelheadedness are required improvement areas to instill into Gaethje’s warrior mentality.
Trevor Wittman of team Elevation in Colorado has worked with Gaethje on his mental approach, especially his fight IQ once he finds himself in the blistering heat of the fight. This has been their focus since the first Poirier bout.
In Gaethje’s last fight, we saw great evolution as we witnessed him systematically take apart a very accomplished, future lightweight elite in Rafael Fiziev. In that fight, Gaethje came with a plan, executed said plan, then allowed his raw aggression to put an exclamation on his systematic yet aggressive attack.
Gaethje believes that Poirier will step into the cage Saturday with a foe that is nowhere near the fighter or man he fought in 2018, and to an extent I believe that to be true.
For Poirier, there is only positivity. Aside from losses to Oliveira and Nurmagomedov which Poirier has moved beyond; he’s had his hand raised in his last nine competitions. He’s a refined, precise striker who is versed in grappling, has cardio for ten rounds, features a granite chin and is as determined as any athlete in the organization.
Poirier’s precision, athleticism, fight IQ and experience against the absolute elite in the division make him threat to the title, in my opinion, should he get his hand raised here.
A clarifying way to look at these maniacs is by their numbers.
Poirier lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute and only allows 4.25 for a +1.26 ratio. He averages 1.4 takedowns per fight, and he defends 63% of takedown attempts. A well-rounded approach.
Gaethje’s numbers are more reflective of the reckless, aggressive Gaethje as his successful significant strikes are a whopping 7.38, but the significant strikes he receives is 7.66 for a negative .28 ratio. He attempts few to no takedown attempts in his bouts, though he has a solid wrestling base and defends 53% of takedowns. A singularly dimensioned approach.
Both men, after losing to Oliveira, had impressive victories to set them up for this fight which essentially props the winner into a final run at a title fight, while the loser will have a long road back to contention realizing that each combatant is thirty-four.
It’s Poirier’s more diverse fight ability, his logic, calm demeanor and ability to remain on plan against the “natural born brawler” in Gaethje who is claiming to be more patient and “Poirier-like” in his approach.
My question is, does that all change once Poirier pastes Gaethje with a two-piece to the teeth?