The Houston Astros (+120) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-145) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Jupiter.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Astros vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Astros are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 3-1 ATS.
Astros vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Astros vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jason Castro has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.70 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Gorman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Albert Pujols has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 67 games at home (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 games at home (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 96 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -28.57% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -1.33% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -36.23% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 31.75% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 3-1 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 48.54% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 25.23% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -4.49% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -3.45% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (763/1,304) when behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 15% (81/521) against Adam Wainwright last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Adam Wainwright threw breaking pitches 59% of the time (384/652) when ahead in the count last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.