Adam Burke shares MLB stats he uses to handicap baseball
My go-to line when explaining baseball stats and analytics to people is to say that “they quantify what the eyes can see.” Advanced stats simply paint a better picture than the traditional stats and provide more layers of context to help explain how much a player is helping or hurting his team.
You may watch a game and notice that the center fielder isn’t very good defensively. He’s getting a late read on fly balls and doesn’t have the speed to compensate. He’s got a “noodle arm”. Well, the advanced metrics can look at things like “Outs Above Average” or “Defensive Runs Above Average” to show how much worse than “average” fielder that player is.
A lot of traditional metrics fall short. Think about on-base percentage, which is walks plus hits divided by plate appearances ((BB H) / PA). That stat really came to prominence around the time that the Michael Lewis book Moneyball was released in 2003. Batting average had always been the go-to stat, but the whole goal as a hitter is not to make an out. Walks are a big part of that equation, thus OBP became a better indicator of offensive output than BA.
But, let’s think more about OBP. Should a home run count the same as a single? Should a double count the same as a walk? With OBP, there is no distinction between the ways of reaching base. Enter wOBA, or weighted on-base average, which is an OBP variant that assigns run values to the manner in which a hitter reaches base. For example, in 2022, a single was worth .884 runs, while a home run was worth 2.072 runs in the formula for wOBA. A walk was worth .689 runs, but a double was worth 1.261. Why? Because doubles increase the chances of scoring a run or driving in a run more than a walk does.
The way I analyze baseball is to utilize the metrics and the statistics to try and find betting opportunities. I don’t want readers or listeners to be overwhelmed by the numbers. It’s my job to explain what they mean, why they are important and how we can use them in our handicapping to find smart bets to make.
I know these stats and abbreviations can be daunting. My only request is that you keep an open mind throughout the season.
The following are some of the stats that I use in my team previews and will use throughout my daily article and my on-air appearances over the course of the season:
BaseRuns: In my season previews, I talk about the BaseRuns record. BaseRuns is a “context-neutral environment” that takes all of the individual outcomes, puts them together and spits out expected runs for and against.
Think about these six events in an inning: HR, 1B, 1B, K, K, K. Depending on the order, a team might score three runs (1B, 1B, K, K, HR, K), two runs (1B, HR, K, 1B, K, K), one run (HR, 1B, 1B, K, K, K). The same six outcomes, just in different orders. BaseRuns removes “sequencing”, which is largely random. This also eliminates the randomness of hitting or defending with runners in scoring position. A big disparity between actual record and BaseRuns record might show that a team got lucky or won a lot of close games.
Pythagorean Win-Loss: Pythagorean Win-Loss is a standings metric based on run differential. A team’s runs scored and runs against are put into a formula and an expected record is produced. This concept is used across all sports and is sometimes just labeled “Expected W-L”.
FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement Player (fWAR): Wins Above Replacement Player (WAR) is one of the most comprehensive individual player statistics available. It shows how much value a player has provided relative to his peers. The “f” stands for FanGraphs, which is where I pull my player WAR data from, since I think they do the best job of calculating it.
A player with a fWAR under 1.0 is a replacement-level player, or not a very good one. A player with a 1-2 fWAR is a decent role player or a platoon type of guy. A player with a 2-3 fWAR is a solid player that any team would be happy to have. The scale goes up from there and separates the bad players from the good players and the good players from the great players.