Here are our top picks for Saturday’s college football slate of Week 3 games.
Georgia (-24.5) @ South Carolina
I know it might seem like I'm picking on South Carolina early in the season, but the schedule isn't doing them any favors here. Georgia stomped a mudhole in Oregon Week 1, and I consider them a much better team than South Carolina.' That was a 'neutral' game that was in Atlanta, and this is a road game against a Conference opponent, but I expect the same type of result.'
South Carolina has struggled against the run, currently ranking 129th out of 131 schools and giving up an average of 247.5 yards per game.' Georgia has actually been passing very well and is currently second in the nation in passing yards per game at just under 400 yards.' I think Georgia will be able to do whatever they want offensively, but I would say that for Georgia against most teams.'
The bigger concern for me is actually the offensive side for SC. They did manage to put up 376 passing yards against Arkansas, but they also fumbled five times and turned it over three times all while taking six sacks.' Georgia hasn't been getting to the QB as often as expected this year, but they have been great in coverage and are a top 5 team against the pass in PFFs rankings.' I don't usually like laying this many points, but I think Georgia is the best team in the country by a wide margin, and South Carolina, while on the rise, is not in Georgia's league quite yet.' Take the Bulldogs and lay the points!
Bet: Georgia -24.5 (-107 on FanDuel)
- Scott Bogman
Miami (FL) (+6) at Texas A&M
The market isn't penalizing A&M for last week's home upset loss to Appalachian State. On the one hand, I sorta understand. A&M probably outplayed Appy State, which finished with just a 22.6% postgame win expectancy. And, of course, there's the general theory of a bounceback performance after a stinker.
But on the other hand, I don't understand it at all. The Aggies didn't take Appalachian State seriously. Aggie players were openly and enthusiastically mocking Appy in pregame pep rallies. Now we're supposed to expect A&M to flip the light switch back on the next week because Miami… is a bigger name?
A&M should have been heavily downgraded in power rankings around the industry for how they've looked over the first two weeks. The Aggies have shoddy quarterback play and don't appear to have a bell-cow running back. The slow-paced, vanilla offense also has predictable play-calling tendencies, making the Aggies easier to defend.
A&M also has serious concerns in the secondary. Despite playing an FCS team and a Sun Belt team over the first two games, the Aggies rank No. 122 in PFF coverage grade. If the Aggies cover like that on Saturday, they're gonna get lit up by Miami's Tyler Van Dyke, a prime NFL prospect with a big-league arm.
The Hurricanes destroyed an FCS team and Southern Miss the first two weeks. We haven't yet seen Mario Cristobal's team play a quality opponent. But I do believe this Miami team is more dangerous than recent Hurricane incarnations.
The Hurricanes' running game is going to be better than we thought it would be after Miami unearthed a gem in the portal, Ole Miss transfer RB Henry Parrish Jr., who has looked like a potential star. Miami is also strong in the trenches. The Canes currently rank inside the top-35 in both PFF run- and pass-block grades.
Miami has a nasty pass rush and multiple future NFL players in the secondary. If A&M falls behind, the Aggies will be in serious trouble. A&M QB Haynes King ranks No. 110 out of 131 FBS quarterbacks in passer rating. A&M HC Jimbo Fisher has thus far refused to commit to him as a starter for Saturday.
This spread gives A&M too much respect while seemingly overlooking the Hurricanes. My numbers install Miami as the small favorite.